Guess how many Hungarians there will be in 2051
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It is a sad fact that the population of Hungary has been decreasing since 1981; therefore, many Hungarian demographers and professionals have warned that if the trend continues, the Hungarian nation would slowly disappear from Europe. As a result, the government introduced several measures to help couples that have children, from tax allowances to direct financial support. However, it seems that it is difficult to reverse the process.
Portfolio‘s journalist József Lennert made some calculations about what the future of Hungarians looks like and showed the results on some diagrams that you may find in his article. According to him, he calculated with various models, so we can summarise his findings in good and bad “scripts”.
Mr Lennert says that the trend of the population decline will not change by 2051, but there will be significant regional differences, meaning that there will be villages from where
40 pc of the current population will disappear in 30 years,
while there will be regions where the decline will not be too significant, or the overall trend will be positive. He said that he used a so-called agent-centred model to calculate future trends, which means that he tried to predict how Hungarians would move in the country to simulate demographic trends better. According to him, people may use four inland migration types:
Hungary better smarten up and have larger families. The population should be 15 million by now, not 9.5. It will probably take a few years before statistics show whether the government programs have succeeded.
Never heard of the overpopulation of planet Earth? It is just a good thing that there are no births; much more place to live in. If each country should show this trend, in about 50 years climate could become ‘normal’ again.