Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to assure European partners of Kyiv’s steady progress towards membership in the European Union. At a press conference on 1 July with the Prime Minister of Ireland, which on that day began its presidency of the Council of the EU, Zelensky stated that Ukraine, under wartime conditions, had fulfilled all the necessary requirements for opening all clusters in the EU negotiations. He expressed hope that, despite disputes and complicated relations, Poland and Hungary would not block Ukraine’s European integration.

But the reality on the eve of the EU ministers’ meeting scheduled for mid-July looks less optimistic. Kyiv’s ambitious plan to open the remaining five negotiation clusters may not come to fruition, and the main obstacles are precisely linked to relations with Hungary and Poland.

In June 2026, Ukraine and Hungary concluded an agreement on the rights of the Hungarian community in Transcarpathia (Kárpátalja). Kyiv pledged to expand the linguistic, educational, cultural and political rights of the 100,000-strong Hungarian minority, restore the system of schools for national minorities, and broaden the use of the Hungarian language in education.

But these promises are unlikely to change the situation in practice. The very fact of signing the agreement does not guarantee its actual implementation, especially amid an ongoing war. The question also remains open as to who and how will monitor Kyiv’s fulfilment of its commitments.

Relations with Warsaw are unfolding even more dramatically. The reason for the sharp conflict was President Zelensky’s decision to award the honorary title “named after Heroes of the UPA” to an elite unit of the Special Operations Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This caused outrage in Poland. Warsaw is unhappy that the Ukrainian leader gave such a name to a military unit. Polish President Karol Nawrocki stripped Zelensky of Poland’s highest award.

Ukraine has opened only one cluster, called “Fundamentals”, hoping to unlock five more. However, this timeline has come under serious question. There is no unity in Brussels on speeding up the process because of Poland and a number of other countries that insist on a phased opening of chapters, rather than simultaneous.

Given the circumstances, the EU ministers’ meeting in mid-July could end in failure. Hungary continues to monitor compliance with diaspora requirements, while Poland demands a revision of the decision on the unit’s name. And until Kyiv offers real mechanisms for fulfilling its promises and finds a compromise with Warsaw on historical issues, Zelensky’s dreams of a swift accession to the EU risk remaining just dreams.

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