Hungarians are the least supportive of Ukrainians in Europe

In a survey conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), Hungary emerged as the country with the highest expectation of a Russian victory over Ukraine. This belief was more prevalent among Hungarians compared to other surveyed nations, except for Poland and Portugal.

The survey, for which the data was collected prior to the withdrawal from Avdiika, shows that 31% of Hungarian participants believe that Russia would win in the conflict with Ukraine. Despite this, in 12 countries, including Hungary, the possibility of some form of peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia was deemed the most likely outcome, averaging around 37% across all participating countries. Significantly, 64% of Hungarians advocated for the EU to pressure Ukraine into negotiations, while 16% supported providing assistance to aid Ukraine in reclaiming its occupied territories, according to Telex.

The Hungarian perspective

A substantial portion of Hungarians who participated in the survey viewed Ukrainian refugees as a potential risk. 37% of respondents perceived them as such, while 19% of Hungarians regarded the Ukrainian refugees as an opportunity. The remaining participants expressed uncertainty, either disagreeing with the perspectives or were indifferent to the question. Hungary would boast the highest percentage of individuals, at 28%, expressing satisfaction if Donald Trump were to win the US presidential election in the autumn. This is not surprising, as the Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán and Donald Trump are considered allies. Nevertheless, Hungarians who support Trump are still in the minority compared to those who would be disheartened (32%) if the Republican candidate were to win the upcoming elections. If the new US leader were to limit current support to Ukraine, 54% of Hungarians believe that the EU should follow suit, marking the highest proportion among the 12 countries surveyed. On average, only a third of respondents shared this sentiment, with 21% preferring to maintain the current level of support and 20% even advocating for an increase. Furthermore, Hungarians, alongside the Greeks, are at the forefront, with 48% expressing the belief that the EU has played a detrimental role in the conflict, while only 25% hold the opposite view. This sentiment is the relative majority among the 12 countries, where 37% perceive the EU’s role negatively compared to the 29% who view it positively.

Searching for reasons

In 2022, a survey polled Hungarians on their perspectives regarding the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, encompassing their perceptions of both nations. Discovering the logic behind Hungarians’ perspectives can be achieved through a closer examination of these statistics. As a result of the ongoing war, perceptions of Russia have notably declined. However, it is worth highlighting that perceptions of the United States have also decreased by 10 points. While there was no survey conducted on Ukraine in 2018, Medián’s 2022 assessment revealed a remarkably low approval rating of 33 points, which is nearly the same as that of Russia, according to 444.hu. The survey investigated preferences regarding closer relations with either Russia or the US in Hungary. Overall, the majority favoured closer ties with the US. However, there were notable differences based on political affiliation. While nearly a quarter of Fidesz voters preferred alignment with the US, the majority leaned towards Russia. Among younger Fidesz voters, there was a stronger inclination towards Moscow, with 65% favouring ties with Russia. The older generation of Fidesz voters seem to think differently, with 54% of those aged 40-59 and 50% of those over 60 opting for closer relations with Russia.

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