During last year’s 12-day war, Iran refrained from the most devastating imaginable retaliation: closing the Strait of Hormuz. Some 20 per cent of global oil trade and 30 per cent of LNG passes through here, so such a move would paralyse life in almost every sphere. Yesterday, however, a tanker was attacked, prompting most shipping vessels to halt. Analysts warn of a brutal surge in fuel prices, with diesel particularly at risk.
Strait of Hormuz in peril
Oil prices rocketed brutally in the early hours of this morning, with benchmark Brent crude touching $82 a barrel before correcting above $77 a few hours later – a 13 per cent jump and a 14-month high. The trigger was strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran (the latter also targeting Lebanon’s Hezbollah), a major regional oil producer. Yet the real issue is the peril now facing oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
This narrow passage between Oman, the United Arab Emirates and Iran is one of global trade’s most vulnerable chokepoints, linking the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean and the high seas. There are no alternative routes for shipping out the extracted oil and gas to buyers. Stretching 31 miles long and just three miles wide at its narrowest, it lies fully within range of Iranian weaponry. The 20 million barrels of Iranian, Qatari, Kuwaiti, Iraqi, Saudi and Emirati oil that transit daily – worth some $500 billion – account for a fifth of the world’s LNG shipments too. A specialist speaking to Al Jazeera noted that 30 per cent of global oil shipments, 20 per cent of aviation fuel and 16 per cent of diesel and kerosene pass through here.
Oil prices could soar
Asian nations – chiefly China, India, Japan and South Korea – account for 84 per cent of demand (based on 2024 figures). Little wonder, then, that China promptly called for a halt to the fighting after America’s strikes.
Tehran has not yet sealed off the strait, though it has threatened to do so repeatedly. It held back even during last summer’s 12-day war, but yesterday it struck a tanker. The upshot: at least 150 tankers have dropped anchor on either side, with traffic reduced to a fraction. Owners are loath to order departures, fearing tragedy at any moment.
Al Jazeera reports suggest Brent could hit $100 a barrel, sparking a global inflation spike of 0.6 to 0.7 percentage points. Meanwhile, safe-haven gold surged 2.23 per cent ($116) to $5,364 an ounce at dawn, having touched $5,460 earlier.
Fuel price hikes in Hungary
In Hungary, RTL News reports indicate fuel prices could rise by 70-80 forints. The first increase is already announced: from tomorrow, diesel will cost 5 forints more per litre, while petrol holds steady for now. The market anticipates further jumps – compounded by any forint weakness – so motorists would be wise to fill up promptly.
Tehran digs in amid succession
Contrary to President Trump’s claims, Iran’s leadership has no intention of negotiating with America; indeed, it signals the supreme leader’s post – vacated by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s confirmed death yesterday – will be filled within days. The US President has suggested Iranian military operations could drag on for three to four weeks.
Glimmers of hope for fuel
László Csicsmann, a Near East expert and professor at Corvinus University in Budapest, cautions that toppling the regime – a goal Trump has touted – is no simple task in a 90-million-strong, multi-ethnic Iran. Mourning for the ayatollah is underway, and a successor will soon be chosen, leaving the political endgame murky and unlikely to satisfy the attackers.
From an oil and fuel price perspective, however, there is cheer: Csicsmann believes America’s priority is obliterating Iran’s navy. Success here would curb Tehran’s ability to disrupt Hormuz shipping. Mol Group’s supply chain director Szabolcs Szabó adds that the market shifts hourly; prices could runaway in worst-case scenarios, though he eschews number-crunching.
Regional headaches compound woes
The Druzhba pipeline is offline, blocking our access to familiar Russian crude. If prolonged, this poses dual risks: uncertainty over Adriatic pipeline volumes, and how much diesel can be refined from alternatives. Our diesel-short region will feel the pinch, Mr Szabó warns – unless Croatia greenlights Russian oil via the Adriatic despite Druzhba’s halt, a question still hanging on technical capacity and steep shipping fees.
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Even guardian angels aren’t what they used to be. Orban will probably find himself a different protector, perhaps Putin, but then he’ll just be jumping out of the frying pan into the fire.
You do realize, that Tisza wants to stop Russian oil deliveries? And that their main argument is, that other imports aren’t that expensive, and are just as reliable?
Because if you were, you would understood, that this is far more damaging to Magyar.
Now, it will not be Orbán, who did not diversify, because the West will run low too. It’s Ukraine, that acts just like Iran. Except, that Ukraine have no legitimate claim for their aggression. Do you know, who it hurts, if Ukraine’s image suffers, or the West runs low on oil? Magyar.
And do you know, what will happen now, that Orbán established, that Ukraine Croatia and Magyar conspired to stop oil deliveries, and oil stops because of Iran, and prices will rise? Yes, Magyar will be blamed.
It is such a boon for Orbán, that if it wasn’t the guy proven to have negative IQ, I would’ve said it’s deliberate. But no, Trump is just that retarded. And Orbán lucked out.
“Now, it will not be Orbán, who did not diversify, because the West will run low too.”
Only 0.5% of the oil from the crisis region goes to Europe. If you had read the existing Daily News articles, you would know that. Skimming isn’t enough, even if reading is difficult for you—it’s essential! But you’re not interested in reality; you just want to create panic with your Russian propaganda.
China, Japan, and India are primarily affected (you can also read about this in the articles here), which is why China is already complaining loudly and demanding that Iran not impose a blockade.
Oil for Europe comes mainly from the USA, Great Britain, Norway, and Kazakhstan, and there are long-term supply contracts in place.
Your Russian propaganda only interests conspiracy theorists who can’t distinguish between reality and wishful thinking. I’ll spare you the other points, as they also contain only nonsense, and answering them would be a complete waste of time!
Can you only write nonsense made up out of thin air?
If you understood how markets work, you would know, it is irrelevant if that oil was supposed to go to China, Brazil or Europe.
Let’s say, it was supposed to go to China, shall we?
Now China has a big hole they need to fill. How will they do it?
Go to a different supplyer, and buy their oil and divert oil flows from Europe to them.
It’s so sad, that you can not comprehand second order events…
Makes arguing with you rather tedious. Explaining the basics again and again and again…
Here is Orban’s “Golden Age” brought by the man who created a “Board Of Peace” that Orban so willingly joined only a few weeks ago, the man who claims he deserves the “Nobel Peace Prize”, the man that Orban said would be great for the world. Do not complain. This is who Fidesz wanted in power in the US and this is what you get. If we are lucky the Iranian regime will be so degraded that its’ days of being a state sponsor of terrorism will be over. Hopefully Iranians will be able to overthrow that evil regime that kills so many of its’ own people. The Iranian regime is an evil ally of Russia that needs to go.
Are you in dissonance Larry?
Yes, the USA made a big mistake, and acts fucking retarded. Like always. But isn’t that just an another argument to “diversify” with good relations with China and Russia?
And no, do not try to play the “moral highground” card:
Trump walked away from the JCPOA. Iran kept the rules of the JCPOA, even after Trump told them they didn’t need to.
Iran let the IAEA observe all nuclear facilities in Iran, until Trump, like a lowlife, stabbed them in the back during negotiations, attacked the civilian nuclear facilities, cancelled the arms controlls, and therefore made the nuclear non-proliferation treaty non-binding (as it is conditional on nuclear powers not being in an arms race).
Then, the pathetically gullible Iranians went back to the negotiating table, just to be stabbed in the back again, assassinating the leader of their religion. On their most holy holiday to rub it in the Iranians face. And they still didn’t have the decency to even declare a fucking war!
Now, everyone on the planet sees how deceitful, duplicitous, scheming, spineless, dishonorable thugs the Americans are.
It amazes me, how idiotic you must be to think that, to live with a parallel, if you betrayed and assassinated the pope you would get the Catholics to overthrow the Vatican. No you fucking idiot. They would call a Crusade and genocide you.
The Iranians will not rise up against their government. They are out for blood, yes, but they want YOUR blood.
Even if you constantly repeat your Russian propaganda, it won’t make it true, and it will only bore most readers here.
The only people who still want your Russian oil are those who see the state as a self-service store to line their own pockets, namely Orbán and Fico.
Everyone else knows they’re just jumping from the frying pan into the fire.
It’s time for you to decide already:
Is Trump a KGB agent, like CNN claimed, or is insulting Trump Russian propaganda?
Is it Russian propaganda if I insult Trump, or if I side with him?
And stop projecting: your answer to everything is “Russian propaganda”. It is actually very boring.
You most likely wrote that expression down more times then words like “like”.
Yes, why do we rely on Russian pipeline oil?
You got the answer.
It’s a shame economically, that Ukraine set up an oil blockade. But Hungary will last longer then Ukraine.
“But Hungary will last longer then Ukraine.”^
That sounds a bit like the final victory fantasies of the German Nazis!!
Except the fact, the Hungary unlike Nazi Germany or Ukraine is not being conquered right now.