Budapest, August 5 (MTI) – Hungary’s industrial output dropped by 0.3 percent year-on-year according to both unadjusted and calendar-adjusted figures in June, Hungary’s trade surplus came to 1.129 billion euros in June, the Central Statistical Office (KSH) said in a first reading on Friday.
Output fell after rising by an unadjusted 9.4 percent and a calendar-adjusted 4.4 percent in May. The June drop came from a high base.
January-June output was up 2.3 percent.
In a seasonally and calendar-adjusted monthly comparison output fell by 2.4 percent. Except for a slight rise in January and a steep increase in April, output has been falling every month since November 2015.
Output growth slowed in every important branch of the sector compared to the previous few months, KSH official Miklós Schindele said.
KSH will publish a second reading of June figures on August 12.
Analysts interviewed by MTI said the weaker industrial performance can probably be attributed to temporary technical factors as industrial output forecasts and purchasing manager indices had signalled further output growth.
Gergely Suppán of Takarékbank said that from December, with Audi reducing its output, industrial output growth could continue at a slower pace. As a result, full-year industrial output growth could slow to slightly below 4 percent this year compared to 7.5 percent in 2015, he added.
Gergely Ürmössy of Erste Bank predicted 2-3 percent industrial output growth for the full year.
Hungary’s trade surplus came to 1.129 billion euros in June, a first reading of data released by the Central Statistical Office (KSH) on Friday shows.
The surplus expanded by 302 million euros from the same period a year earlier.
Exports measured in euros grew by 5.0 percent year-on-year to 8.455 billion euros in June. Imports were up by 1.3 percent at 7.326 billion euros.
About 79 percent of exports went to other European Union member states. Some 78 percent of imports came from the EU.
In the first half of the year, the trade surplus reached 5.308 billion euros, up by 997 million euros from the same period a year earlier. Exports rose by 3.5 percent to 46.711 billion euros and imports increased by 1.5 percent to 41.403 billion euros.
Analysts interviewed by MTI said the trade surplus growth far exceeded expectations.
Péter Virovácz of ING Bank said the outstanding trade surplus was mainly due to the substantial increase in exports. In the remaining part of the year, consumption is expected to grow considerably and investments should start growing, with exports increasing further and imports gradually strengthening, he added.
Gergely Suppán of Takarekbank said the trade surplus could reach 9.1 billion euros this year due to oil prices falling to levels even lower than last year.