Surprising new turn: Poland may help Hungary get EU funds back

Orbán Viktor
Source: MTI/Miniszterelnöki Sajtóiroda/Fischer Zoltán

Hungary has lost access to funds granted by the European Union, a withdrawal period that has prolonged considerably. However, the recent Polish elections might change this circumstance.

The Polish elections were won by Donald Tusk and his coalition, opposing the previous Orbán-friendly government in a tight race. Orbán may have lost an ally in illiberal politics, but he likely gained one in financial standing, as Tusk is striving to secure their funds as well.

Unlikely allies

The funds closed off from Hungary are also fenced off from Poland, and Tusk is vigorously fighting to change this reality. He has consulted with Brussels and is on track to reclaim the pending funds for Poland. If he succeeds, Hungary is likely to benefit too, as excluding Hungary while granting funds to Poland would be politically unwise. Particularly since Poland has not officially fulfilled any of the terms set by the EU for fund suspension, while Hungary, albeit reluctantly, has completed a substantial portion, albeit with a considerable number of necessary documents missing or falling short of the required quality.
Currently, all the funds Hungary would be entitled to receive from the EU since 2021, amounting to roughly 30 billion Euros, are inaccessible. Hungary’s strategy to regain access involves attempting to leverage their veto power against the European Union.

What can a veto do?

Hungary’s stubbornness with these vetoes could have negative repercussions. If other European Member States rally behind the idea of an inner club that denies access to funds for obstinate countries, the total inability to compromise may cease. According to this article, Hungary could potentially regain access to some funds this year if they refrain from vetoing the EU budget review. The European Commission is requesting 100 billion Euros from Member States, with half intended for Ukraine as aid and the other half reserved for unforeseen costs. Many net depositors, such as the Germans, Dutch and Danes, adamantly oppose increasing contributions to the European budget.

Read more about the budget issue HERE.

The Ukrainian question

Ukrainian aid is another potential target for a Hungarian veto. Orbán’s position weakens with the recent election of Slovakian Prime Minister Fico, another Orbán ally who is hesitant to support the aid, making it challenging for Orbán to use blackmail tactics for EU funds. Moreover, the majority of European countries have expressed readiness to aid Ukraine. Hungary could also veto negotiations with Ukraine regarding its potential European Union membership, but this would lack legitimacy as negotiations can only commence if Ukraine implements the recommendations of the Venice Commission on minority issues—precisely why Hungary opposed Ukraine initially.

Read more about the Ukraine war dilemma HERE.

What happens next?

All that’s left for Hungary now is to actually commit to the terms that restrict the access to the funds and consult with the European Commission regarding it.
The Commission is also set to prepare a report shortly on the state of the rule of law mechanism in Hungary, assessing the government’s efforts to access the frozen budget (55% of the three largest programmes).
While not all issues have been resolved, partial successes have been achieved, and further clarification on these restrictions is anticipated in early December.

 

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