Hungary falls behind as Romanian and Bulgarian wages surge

In recent years, few economic indicators have captured Hungarian public attention as much as those showing Romania not only catching up to but surpassing Hungary. Two key metrics often cited are GDP per capita adjusted for purchasing power parity (PPP) and household consumption levels. Both reveal Romania’s significant progress over the past decade within the EU rankings.

For those seeking to maintain the perception of Hungary’s economic advantage, fewer and fewer data points remain convincing. However, the macroeconomic figures also hide contradictions—most notably, that Romania’s progress has not been equally shared across its society.

The rise of Romania’s wealthiest

According to the report of G7, over the last decade, Romania’s top earners have made significant strides within EU income rankings. In contrast, middle-class gains have been more moderate, and the poorest 25% of the population remain largely stagnant. EU-wide income percentile rankings illustrate this disparity by ordering the incomes of all EU citizens and comparing individual country groups to the EU average.

For instance, in Hungary, the 90th income percentile moved slightly forward between 2020 and 2023, ranking ahead of 29% of EU earners compared to 28% in 2020. Full convergence, however, would require Hungarian groups to match or exceed their EU counterparts’ rankings—for example, the Hungarian 90th percentile would need to rank above 89% of EU earners.

Romania has exhibited a similar pattern in recent years, with the greatest gains among the upper and middle-income groups. Only the poorest fifth of Romanian society remains firmly at the bottom of EU rankings. In euro terms, which exclude local cost-of-living adjustments, the income growth among Romania’s higher earners is even more pronounced, highlighting a tangible improvement in living standards.

Bulgaria closes the gap

Bulgaria’s standard of living historically attracted little attention in Hungary, but Romania’s leap has shifted the focus. Bulgaria recently surpassed Hungary in household consumption levels (adjusted for PPP), aided by Hungary’s record-breaking inflation. From 2020 to 2023, Bulgaria’s top-earning 50% also advanced significantly in EU rankings, with the wealthiest Bulgarians already ranking among Europe’s highest earners since the start of the decade.

However, PPP-adjusted income data should be viewed cautiously, as figures for both the wealthiest and poorest segments are often less reliable. Still, in euro terms, only the top third of Bulgaria’s population has seen a relative improvement in the EU income rankings.

A three-way competition

In Hungary, only the top 15% of earners saw progress between 2020 and 2023, while lower-income groups largely slipped in the EU rankings. Comparisons between Bulgaria, Hungary, and Romania reveal that Hungary’s advantage now persists only among its bottom 45% of earners,

while the wealthier 55% of Romanians and Bulgarians have overtaken their Hungarian counterparts.

Hungary still holds a slight lead in EU income rankings when measured in euros, disregarding local cost-of-living differences. Government-aligned analysts often emphasise this comparison to downplay Romania’s progress. However, this approach becomes less favourable when Hungary’s figures are compared with those of higher-cost, more developed countries, where Hungary’s lag is even more apparent.

The future of convergence

The rapid pace of convergence in Romania and Bulgaria is undeniable. While their progress is most visible when adjusting for purchasing power, middle-income groups in all three countries now enjoy broadly similar living standards. As these trends continue, the disparities that once defined economic rankings within the region are diminishing, leaving Hungary’s economic edge increasingly tenuous.

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