A recently published climate research has revealed how the number of tropical nights – extremely warm nights exceeding 20°C – will increase in Hungary in the upcoming decades. Let’s see which are the most affected Hungarian cities.
A recently published climate research examined the expected impact of climate change in the Carpathian Basin, including various Hungarian cities. In terms of climate indices, the research focused primarily on the increasing number of so-called tropical nights, referring to those nights when the lowest temperature is above 20°C. The study examined both an optimistic and a pessimistic scenario.
According to the research results, the number of tropical nights will increase significantly in several Hungarian cities until the end of the century.
As we previously reported, the temperature rose to a record high in Budapest this February. Therefore, it is not surprising that the Hungarian capital is also involved in the increasing number of tropical nights. In the city centre, an average of 13 tropical nights per year was measured between 1981 and 2010, while in the rural outskirts of Budapest, it was only 3. In the period 2021-2050, their number is expected to increase to 20-22 in the city centre, while in the suburbs it might be around 8. The discrepancy can be explained by the fact that in the most densely built-up parts of Budapest, surface temperatures of up to 5°C are higher during the day than in the suburban areas.
As the Hungarian news portal Portfolio reports, by the end of the century, the number of tropical nights per year in Budapest might increase to 54, while in the optimistic version, “only” 29 such nights are likely. The situation can be even more difficult in the most densely populated areas of the capital, where the annual number of tropical nights can exceed 60. Significant growth is also expected in the areas around the city, with 12-31 tropical nights.
Besides Budapest, the number of tropical nights will grow significantly in Pécs, where the current 6 tropical night per year can increase to 21 or even 48 hot nights on a yearly basis. Another drastic change, a tenfold increase, is forecasted in Miskolc, where the current 3 tropical nights per year can range from 14 to 35 until 2050.
Among the most affected Hungarian cities, Nagybecskerek, Siófok, Kecskemét, Szeged, Debrecen, Baja and Békéscsaba are also listed, each of which is expected to have more than 20 tropical nights per year according to the optimistic scenario. However, these Hungarian settlements can even reach 40-50 extremely warm nights per year, considering the pessimistic scenario.
By the end of the century, even the coolest Hungarian settlements – namely Eger and Salgótarján – can expect some tropical nights above 20°C.
In the last decades of the 21st century, 2-10 extremely warm nights are expected in the outskirts of Eger and 5-19 in the city centre, while in the case of Salgótarján, the number of tropical nights may increase to 2-11 and 4-17 on an annual average.