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Latest poll suggests PM Orbán may keep his seat until 2030
According to the latest public opinion poll by Medián, government welfare handouts and promises—which, while devastating the budget, have significantly lifted public mood—seem to be paying off. It is now far less clear who will win the 2026 parliamentary elections, as the Tisza Party’s lead appears to be melting away.
Is public sentiment shifting?
Péter Magyar and the Tisza Party burst onto the Hungarian political scene virtually from nowhere in the wake of the grace scandal in February 2024. In the European Parliament elections, their results started with a 3, and just a few months later, they shook the entire Hungarian political landscape so profoundly that Ferenc Gyurcsány, the former prime minister and long-time opposition leader, chose to step down, feeling completely sidelined and powerless to steer the initiative.
The first poll showing Tisza’s advantage arrived in November last year, and their rise continued steadily through the summer. The turning point seems to have come at the end of summer, as Tisza’s growth stalled and the Fidesz decline halted—though the Tisza Party still held a significant lead at that time.
- Orbán cabinet listed government employees who support the opposition — some even got fired
However, various welfare measures such as reinstating the 14th monthly pension, introducing weapon bonuses, expanding family tax credits, offering tax exemptions for mothers with two or three children, launching the Otthon Start loan, alongside intensified smear campaigns and possibly Viktor Orbán’s displays of strength abroad (such as his meeting with Trump), may now be bearing fruit.
Orbán’s camp may need just a few hundred thousand votes—or maybe even fewer
Political analyst Gábor Török highlights that almost no voter in the country remains uncommitted to either the Tisza Party or Fidesz. Only the far-right Mi Hazánk party lingers near the electoral threshold.
According to the latest Medián survey published by HVG, Tisza now leads overall by only 5%, a figure pollsters consider most significant with so much time left before election day. In Hungary’s electoral system, 5% translates to around 400,000 voters, which is significant but, due to uneven regional distribution—particularly urban and Budapest concentration—still enough to secure a Fidesz majority, as well as Tisza’s. The two main blocs stand at roughly 38:33 in Tisza’s favour, with Mi Hazánk holding 5%. Tisza’s lead has shrunk among both ‘likely voters’ and ‘certain party supporters,’ though it still reaches 10% in the latter category, reports 444.hu.
- PM Orbán’s convoy involved in accident, several bodyguards hospitalised
Should Péter Magyar start to worry?
The race is now tighter than at any point over the past year, at least according to independent pollsters. Pro-government polls have consistently shown a Fidesz lead but have published far fewer surveys.
What may concern Tisza supporters is the marked improvement in public sentiment since October. The proportion of voters wanting a change of government dropped from 60% in September to just 52%, the lowest since summer 2024.
- Click to read more of our articles concerning the 2026 general elections.
Gábor Török recently shared an interesting fact in a Facebook post: back in December 2021, Fidesz led the united opposition by exactly 5%—the same margin by which Tisza currently leads Orbán in the overall population.
Our Politicians have done a lot of ground work to skew the odds in their favour, during their time in power. It is going to be a long, hard slog.
If you desire change – this is the time to act. And do not expect it will be particularly easy or pleasant.
As the late Václav Havel phrased it:
“Democracy is hard. It requires a struggle for what is right, a battle for truth, and the courage to take responsibility for ourselves and for others.”
“If you desire change – this is the time to act. And do not expect it will be particularly easy or pleasant.”
Change is a difficult subject, Dear Norbert.
Some changes, like voting for a politician who will simply hand over your country’s sovereignty to an outside alien power, is never good change, or acceptable, even.
That the Hungarian Left think a vote for Magyar is a vote for anti-corruption makes me think that they think Magyar is an uncorrupt person with a long-established party of incorruptibles.
Actually, the only one who fits this description, in this election, Toroczkai Laslo and Mi Hazank.
As I said in my first comment here – if I were Hungarian this would be a very painful election, because I would have to vote for Orban, even though I would much prefer Toroczkai.
In the end I think a large minority of Hungarians think as I would, if I were Hungarian – this election is only between Orban and Magyar, and only the former will keep Hungary from the horrific damage France, Germany, England, and others have undergone in recent years.
Many Hungarians are coming to understand that, though Hungary is far from where they want it to be, it, as a whole, still is a world better than almost all of Western Europe.
The reason for that reality is complex, but, Orban Viktor is a big part of that.
… “Sovereignty!” – as you and our Politicians appear to be eager to throw Ukraine under the bus – because they are not worthy of sovereignty?
“The West” and EU Membership (which comes with certain obligations, which poses certain limitations on “Sovereignty!”) brought us billions of Euros in EU funds. Think infrastructure (no – our motorways were not funded by our clever Politicians), schools, healthcare, agriculture, the list goes on. It attracted lots of foreign investment – no, they are not coming for the culture or the food. Single market, or convenient gateway to the EU. Speaking of which – we can now live, work, and study in any EU country – and EU citizens in Hungary.
EU rules boosted consumer protection, food safety, and modernized everything from public transport to environmental standards.
The EU gives us credibility on the international stage. Do you think Mr. Putin would have a live meeting with the prime minister of a country with the population the size of Michigan and the GDP of Iowa (population 3 point something million), if it were not for our EU Membership? Thought would US-contextualize Hungary for you.
In case you missed it – we (Hungary) are not doing too great.
https://think.ing.com/articles/monitoring-hungary-trapped-in-stagnation/
Could not possibly be our Politicians, could it? “The war!”, “Soros!”, “Brussels Bureaucrats!”, “Liberal Elites!”, “Migrants!”. I am sure I missed a few. But never, ever our Politicians. Strange, dont you think?
It is hard to explain to an American, someone who lives inside a bubble of prosperity, just how much Hungary and Central Europe in general has improved ever since it joined the EU. From a position of economic collapse and generalized poverty to one of widespread development and a great quality of life, the EU has a prominent role in lifting Central Europe to where it is now. Although Hungary nowadays could be faring better (THANKS, ORBÁN ASSHOLE!!!), it is a lot better than, say, the 1990’s and 2000’s. There is no fucking way Hungary would have improved alone to the level of development it has today without EU funds. The EU is good, necessary, and precious – And Orbán needs to leave office for the sake of Hungary’s position in the EU.
Never sell your soul or your rights for Prosperity
Its called Moloch worship, and it ends in total destruction
If you desire change – this is the time to act. And do not expect it will be particularly easy or pleasant.
What change ? Change of narrative, stances and postures. Currently, the major part of economic well being is driven more by public spending than private sector rise. The key issue: fundamentals. Hungary does not have solid fundamentals (mining & agriculture, growing industry and, thus growing private service sector) for the future growth and it impacts the entire population, except for legacy elites. That change you talk about is performative theatrics…..the new elites will not bring what is needed…..solid fundamentals for future growth and economic expansion…..the rest is not that important. Once Hungary will have some vission that economy can grow, and I honestly do not know how (without foreign investment and structural changes not possible, everything, even now is just patching). Change will bring new way of talking, geopolitical realignment (EU), hardly any substantial change. That is, unfortuntally not possible….moderate growth, lower inflation…perhaps, but that is already happening. The key issue: fundamentals. And voters, instead questioning the public officials about growth / economy ….strategic development, most entertain themselves in empty ideological pointless discussions…..interesting, but not helpful, not at all. “Democracy is hard. It requires a struggle for what is right, a battle for truth, and the courage to take responsibility for ourselves and for others.”….sorry, these are pointless fairy tales to occupy mind & talent instead of pushing for some work that improves life fundaments.
And so he should! The best political leader in the World today!
Ah. The Leader fighting Societal Decay … Guiding Hungary through all the trepidations of our era, King-like ruling by decree, from the 2020 C19 pandemic to its successor, due to the migrant and Ukraine “special military operation” crisis and now Ukraine (continued and an energy crisis.
It is more about centralizing and consolidating power. Our government bypasses parliament and there are few if any mechanisms for independent or judicial checks. Democracy and governance, Hungarian style.
Yeah, no.
You clearly don’t understand, how Hungarians work:
When an election is far away, Hungarians complain, and say, that they want the “new guy”, whose name they don’t even know.
Then, as the election comes closer, they research the “new messiah”, and feel embarassed, how misguided they were a few months before.
Then on election day, the messiah fails, and the whole game starts again, because the remnants of the old communist elite, and the foreign interests can’t understand, that the average Hungarian is able to think.
It’s the 5th such cycle. You guys should learn to read the room, man.
Orbánism is the answer! It actually mimics the old “Communist Elite”. We now have mechanisms of control such as centralization, patronage, and limited accountability, using conservative, nationalist, and populist themes instead of dogma
Our new Elites are friends, family, and toadies of our Politicians. Just like the good old days. ““God, good luck, and Viktor Orbán”!
Election bribes work, especially in Hungary. The Viktator took a huge loan from China, he is taking one from the USA too. The avarage Hungarian (most of the are morons) doesn’t understand that the bribes are tax-payers money and eventually he will have to pay for this.