Europe’s enlargement debate is often described in technical language. It is measured through chapters, benchmarks, screening reports, institutional readiness and reform timetables. All of that matters. A serious accession process cannot be built on sentiment alone. But behind the technical vocabulary sits a larger strategic question: does Europe’s promise still carry the credibility required to change political behaviour?

By Miroslav Lajcak, Senior Slovak diplomat and international affairs leader

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For countries that have spent years working towards European Union membership, credibility is not an abstract idea. It affects elections, reforms, investment, regional relationships and public trust. When the path appears real, leaders have a reason to take difficult decisions and citizens have a reason to believe that reform has a purpose. When the path appears endless, the political energy behind that reform begins to weaken.

For Miroslav Lajcak, this question of credibility has been central to much of his work across European diplomacy, particularly in relation to the Western Balkans and the European Union’s long-term strategic responsibilities.

Europe needs enlargement to mean something

The European Union has always been more than a market or a set of institutions. It is also a political horizon. For countries in the Western Balkans, that horizon has shaped decisions about governance, rule of law, regional cooperation and foreign policy alignment for many years. The prospect of membership has helped anchor expectations and encouraged difficult reforms that would otherwise have been easier to avoid.

But a horizon must not move every time a country takes a step towards it. If candidate countries meet conditions and still find the door no closer, the process loses its power. Enlargement then becomes a language of encouragement rather than a mechanism of transformation. That is dangerous for the European Union as well as for the countries waiting outside it, because credibility once lost is difficult to rebuild.

Credibility is built through sequence, not slogans

In diplomacy, sequence matters. A promise made too easily can create disappointment later. A commitment delayed too long can become meaningless. The art is to align political ambition with practical steps, so that each stage creates confidence in the next. Enlargement works best when reforms are recognised, progress is visible and the rules are applied consistently.

This does not mean lowering standards. On the contrary, credible enlargement requires high standards because membership is serious. The rule of law, democratic institutions, media freedom, economic resilience and administrative capacity are not boxes to be ticked for appearances. They are the foundations that allow a country to function inside the Union. But standards only carry authority when the process is also seen as fair.

Candidate countries have responsibilities, and those responsibilities should not be softened. Domestic leaders must do the work of reform, not simply speak the language of reform. They must show that European integration is not a slogan for international audiences, but a programme for institutions, courts, businesses and citizens at home. At the same time, the European Union must show that when progress is made, it matters.

This balance between responsibility and credibility is one that Miroslav Lajcak has returned to throughout his work in European and multilateral institutions.

The Western Balkans cannot live on promises alone

The Western Balkans remain central to the question of European credibility. The region is surrounded by EU member states, tied deeply to Europe through history, trade, migration, security and culture, and yet still lives with an unfinished European perspective. That unfinished position creates space for frustration, cynicism and outside influence.

People in the region understand delay. They know that reforms are difficult. They also understand when delay begins to look like hesitation. If the message from Europe is that the Western Balkans belong inside the European project, then that message has to be matched by a process that is disciplined, serious and capable of producing movement. Otherwise, strategic language becomes a substitute for strategy itself.

The question is not whether enlargement should be automatic. It should not be. The question is whether it remains credible enough to influence decisions. A process that never rewards progress will eventually stop producing progress. A process that is seen as political theatre will invite political theatre in return. A credible process, by contrast, can still shape behaviour because it connects effort with consequence.

Montenegro shows what a credible path can do

Montenegro is an important example, not because its path has been simple, but because it shows how a European framework can shape a country’s political horizon over time. Within a single generation, Montenegro moved from a sensitive statehood question to independence, NATO membership and advanced EU accession negotiations. That journey is not complete, and it has required sustained domestic responsibility as well as European engagement.

For Miroslav Lajcak, who played a central role in the European Union’s work around Montenegro’s independence referendum, the country’s experience remains an important example of how process, discipline and credibility can shape political outcomes.

The lesson is not that every country should follow the same path. No two societies carry the same history or the same political pressures. The lesson is that credible processes matter. When rules are clear, when commitments are serious and when institutions on both sides treat the process with discipline, European integration can become more than a distant aspiration. It can become a framework for real political change.

Reform and responsibility must sit on both sides

Enlargement is sometimes discussed as if responsibility sits only with the countries seeking membership. That is not accurate. Candidate countries must reform, but the European Union must also prepare itself to receive new members. This requires institutional readiness, political courage and public explanation inside existing member states. Enlargement cannot succeed if it is treated as a purely external policy. It is also an internal European choice.

That choice is more urgent now than it was a decade ago. Europe’s security environment has changed. The war in Ukraine, pressure on democratic systems, disinformation, migration pressures and strategic competition have all made clear that grey zones are not stable zones. The Western Balkans cannot be treated as a permanent waiting room. The longer uncertainty lasts, the more expensive it becomes politically and strategically.

Europe’s enlargement promise does not need more dramatic language. It needs credibility, sequence and delivery. Candidate countries must know that reform is demanding but meaningful. Citizens must know that European standards are not arbitrary. Member states must know that enlargement strengthens the continent when it is managed responsibly. The future of Europe will depend not only on what it says about its neighbourhood, but on whether its promises are still strong enough to organise it.

Miroslav Lajcak is a senior Slovak diplomat and international affairs leader with more than three decades of experience in European diplomacy, multilateral affairs and conflict resolution.

He has served as President of the 72nd United Nations General Assembly, Slovak Foreign Minister, OSCE Chairperson-in-Office, High Representative and EU Special Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, and EU Special Representative for the Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue and other Western Balkan regional issues.

Miroslav Lajcak’s work across European diplomacy, multilateral institutions and the Western Balkans continues to inform his perspective on enlargement, negotiation and the future of Europe’s strategic credibility.

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