Expert: the new Hungarian inflation data is a positive surprise
In September 2025, consumer prices were on average 4.3% higher than the same month a year earlier, while prices remained steady compared to August, the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH) reported on Wednesday. Orsolya Nyeste, Erste’s chief macroeconomic analyst, said that the recent data could be seen as a “slightly positive surprise.”
Food prices have increased more significantly
Compared to September 2024, food prices rose by 4.7% (excluding hospitality services, the increase was 3.0%). Within this, chocolate and cocoa soared by 19.2%, eggs by 18.2%, coffee by 17.6%, sweet baked goods by 13.1%, fruit and vegetable juices by 11.9%, canteen products by 9.5%, and seasonal foods like potatoes, fresh vegetables, and domestic and tropical fruits climbed by 9.2%—with fresh domestic and tropical fruits up a striking 19.6%.
Cooking oil and dining out both rose by 8.4%. Notably, prices fell for margarine by 29.0%, flour by 12.0%, dairy products by 8.4%, sugar by 8.2%, bologna and sausage by 7.7%, milk by 7.4%, and pork by 4.5%.
Household energy costs jumped by 10.6% on average, with natural gas up 23.4% and electricity rising by 2.3%. Alcohol and tobacco prices increased by 7.1%, with tobacco alone climbing 8.7%.
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Services became 5.9% more expensive overall, driven mostly by a 12.9% hike in holiday services. Vehicle repairs and maintenance, as well as personal care services, both rose by 9.5%, home repairs by 9.4%, rents by 9.3%, sports and museum tickets by 8.8%, and healthcare services by 8.6%.
Prices for durable goods increased by 2.5%, including a 20.7% surge in jewellery, 5.1% in indoor furniture, 4.1% in heating and cooking appliances, and 1.8% for new cars. Vehicle fuels became slightly cheaper, falling by 0.3%, while medicines and medical supplies saw a 4.4% rise.
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Regarding the month-on-month changes from August 2025, overall consumer prices held steady.
Expert: New inflation data can be regarded as positive
Food prices dipped by 0.2% over the month (a 0.5% drop excluding hospitality services), mainly because of a 4.0% decrease in seasonal food prices. Dry pasta fell 2.0%, baked goods 1.3%, milk and butter 0.7% each, rice and husked grains 0.6%. However, prices rose for school meals by 2.1%, nursery and kindergarten meals by 1.4%, eggs by 1.3%, fruit and vegetable juices by 1.1%, and dairy products by 0.8%.
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With the seasonal change, clothing prices increased the most over the month, by 1.5%. Household energy prices eased by 0.1%, with electricity rising slightly by 0.2%, while bottled gas became 1.0% cheaper.
Service costs eased by 0.4%, largely due to holiday service prices dropping 6.3% because of seasonal factors. Vehicle fuel and medicine prices both ticked up by 0.4%, the KSH added.
Orsolya Nyeste, Erste’s chief macroeconomic analyst, said that the recent data could be seen as a “slightly positive surprise,” HVG wrote.
All of this is BS…prices are rising every week, I have my shopping reciepts to prove it.
The forint appreciated a little over 2% against the Euro over the past year. This will have a direct effect on the Hungarian inflation rate as prices are measured in forints. Thus the stronger forint brought down inflation of imported products by 2%. The current rally in the forint is running counter to the long term trend. I would expect a reversal at some point. The Hungarian central bank has done a good job defending the forint and bringing down inflation with higher interest rates but that comes at the cost of anemic economic growth. In response to oppresively high interest rates the government is now going to take on more debt by financing low interest loans to young home buyers and some small businesses. In economics nine times out of ten state intervention like that will have negative consequences that may outweight the positive benefits of whatever they are trying to do. For example, give young home buyers low interest loans and it will likely push up home prices leaving them with little real benefit while the government has taken on debt to do this. Some small businesses may become successful but others are simply going to milk the government cow for whatever they can and knowing Hungary there will plenty there abusing the money of Hungarian taxpayers leaving the country with more debt. This government constantly interferes with free-market processes and it is rarely successful doing it.
Facts and data. Lets put our “positive surprise!” in context, shall we?
https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate%20-?continent=europe
Challenge – find Hungary. How this is “positive” other than not being Romania or Bulgaria?
Could not possibly have anything to do with our Politicians? “The War!”, “The EU!”, “The Liberal Elites!” – always something or someone else to blame. Even when basically ruling by decree.