While Viktor Orbán accuses his political opponents of being Ukrainian agents, and Péter Magyar calls them Russian spies, the latest poll results have just been released. They reveal several surprising insights, though the overall balance of power remains largely unchanged. The big question is: will there be a change of government in 2026? According to Republikon’s data, the chances have never been higher.

This is hardly surprising in itself, as the Tisza Party has been leading polls conducted by non-governmental institutes since late last autumn. The big story at the end of summer was that their rapid growth had stalled, and Fidesz managed to claw back a percentage point or two—possibly within the margin of error—but this hinted that party loyalties are settling. Political analyst Gábor Török previously noted in a post that a significant majority of voters have already decided who they will mark their cross for next April. The real competition lies among the undecided 20–25% and the battle to retain committed supporters.

New poll: a sweeping Tisza victory still expected

The latest Republikon figures confirm this. Even though there have been slight shifts in emphasis since late summer, the overall trend remains unchanged. Looking at firm voters, the Tisza Party is still well ahead despite the government’s increasing attacks branding them as traitors. Péter Magyar’s camp leads with 43%, while Orbán’s supporters would only secure 35% in a hypothetical Sunday election. This result comes even as Republikon data shows a 5% rise since August in those certain to vote.

PM Orbán and Péter Magyar new poll results
Photo: FB/Péter Magyar

In a surprise, the Mi Hazánk party is poised to enter parliament with 8%, while the DK hovers just above the threshold at 5%. The Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party, however, would stand no chance in a Sunday vote.

In America, such largesse would change everything

According to Republikon, “the party system appears to be consolidating, with Tisza maintaining a visible lead over Fidesz-KDNP for many months. The government parties’ summer momentum was not enough to seriously challenge Péter Magyar’s group, and ongoing scandals around Fidesz-KDNP have not greatly damaged the ruling alliance’s support.”

In a previous interview with Partizán, Péter Tölgyessy said Orbán’s giveaways—such as tax breaks, tax cancellations, cheap loans and other transfers—could cause a substantial shift in an American election, where huge sums flow to voters. But the Hungarian economy has been stagnant, or in recession, for years, and recent inflation has greatly eroded trust in the government. Thus, the chances of turning the tables are slim, though there is still plenty of time before the election.

More than two-thirds wouldn’t skip voting

The latest data indicate that 68% of Hungary’s voting-age population would take part in a hypothetical Sunday election, another 19% would probably vote, and only 11% say they definitely or probably would not.% would probably vote, and only 11% say they definitely or likely wouldn’t.

Methodology:

  • 1,000 respondents
  • Telephone interviews
  • Between 25 September and 1 October
  • Representative by gender, age, education and settlement type
  • Margin of error: +/- 3.5%