Will PM Orbán lose his seat in April? Sobering results from the latest poll
While Viktor Orbán accuses his political opponents of being Ukrainian agents, and Péter Magyar calls them Russian spies, the latest poll results have just been released. They reveal several surprising insights, though the overall balance of power remains largely unchanged. The big question is: will there be a change of government in 2026? According to Republikon’s data, the chances have never been higher.
This is hardly surprising in itself, as the Tisza Party has been leading polls conducted by non-governmental institutes since late last autumn. The big story at the end of summer was that their rapid growth had stalled, and Fidesz managed to claw back a percentage point or two—possibly within the margin of error—but this hinted that party loyalties are settling. Political analyst Gábor Török previously noted in a post that a significant majority of voters have already decided who they will mark their cross for next April. The real competition lies among the undecided 20–25% and the battle to retain committed supporters.
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The latest Republikon figures confirm this. Even though there have been slight shifts in emphasis since late summer, the overall trend remains unchanged. Looking at firm voters, the Tisza Party is still well ahead despite the government’s increasing attacks branding them as traitors. Péter Magyar’s camp leads with 43%, while Orbán’s supporters would only secure 35% in a hypothetical Sunday election. This result comes even as Republikon data shows a 5% rise since August in those certain to vote.
In a surprise, the Mi Hazánk party is poised to enter parliament with 8%, while the DK hovers just above the threshold at 5%. The Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party, however, would stand no chance in a Sunday vote.
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According to Republikon, “the party system appears to be consolidating, with Tisza maintaining a visible lead over Fidesz-KDNP for many months. The government parties’ summer momentum was not enough to seriously challenge Péter Magyar’s group, and ongoing scandals around Fidesz-KDNP have not greatly damaged the ruling alliance’s support.”
In a previous interview with Partizán, Péter Tölgyessy said Orbán’s giveaways—such as tax breaks, tax cancellations, cheap loans and other transfers—could cause a substantial shift in an American election, where huge sums flow to voters. But the Hungarian economy has been stagnant, or in recession, for years, and recent inflation has greatly eroded trust in the government. Thus, the chances of turning the tables are slim, though there is still plenty of time before the election.
More than two-thirds wouldn’t skip voting
The latest data indicate that 68% of Hungary’s voting-age population would take part in a hypothetical Sunday election, another 19% would probably vote, and only 11% say they definitely or probably would not.% would probably vote, and only 11% say they definitely or likely wouldn’t.
- Click for more news concerning the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary elections.
Methodology:
- 1,000 respondents
- Telephone interviews
- Between 25 September and 1 October
- Representative by gender, age, education and settlement type
- Margin of error: +/- 3.5%
Hungary needs leaders like germany, france and the UK- its sad you are stuck with a russian puppet holding up invading russia in the EU. Europes biggest threat is global warming and lack of wind power. The lack of diversity here is shameful and its been years the new mosque has been built. Instead they are building bridges. The torture of gays and trans is off the charts. There is little understanding of peoples pronouns here.
The needs to be addressed in the schools starting in pre-K. Children are still being taught there are only 2 sexs , when in fact the EU insist there are 62. These are the same people brought you the life saving covid shots.
You are the problem. We dont need mosques, We are christian. We dont need pronouns. I mean are you serious? Are you against common sense, do you want your culture get replaced by a completely different one?
Islam is evil. The good will win in the end. And TISZA is not supporting the brainwashing of children either. Why should we build mosques here? They have their own. You, my friend, are the enemy of the state you are in. There should be 62 genders? Are you a moron? What? Theres vagina, and penis. And theres mental illnesses. Theres men who are afraid of being a man so they escape to the other side (hint: they cant, they only embarrass themselves, and show a bad example)
Because as long as it’s accepted, same as people saying being fat is healthy and okay, there will be people who could follow that example. Better keep the good example so that the next generation is not a complete can of garbage. It’s shameful that you think this way. I hope you will find god within you.
No I can’t lol. It sounds like someone wanted to show the worst possible example, and a roadmap to a living hell in Europe. Why you want to see more diversity? We don’t need diversity. It’s not something to achieve and strive for, unless you want to erase a country. I want to be able to relate to my people. I cannot relate to a muslim. Im not going there to relate to them. I wanna stay in my country and I dont want someone else’s country to move into my country. Can you leave the EU please? Just go to your mentally challenged friends, or to the outdated, unfair, lacking of human rights islam world. Our ancestors built everything so that WE can prosper, not some goodfornothing, emptyhanded, faraway guy with a primitive ideology. I dont want to see the same shit we see in Germany or the UK. People are scared, and for a good reason. Islam is the evil itself, a poison, trying to leak into our society, slowly, but not even quietly anymore. Not enough mosques? Tore the remaining ones down so that they fucking leave. Peace, fellow “European”
We had the ottomans before. Never again, thanks.We will strike back millionfold, You will lose.
They can go home and build their own. Why can’t they? Aren’t they smart enough? Aren’t they hardworking enough? Thought so. In this world only the stronger survives, It’s just the law of nature, not mine. We can see it happening in real time. 😀
We are living in a modern world, they are not. And it was WE who built this modern world, not THEM. They have had all the opportunities, resources.
Who is “Republikon”: an institute established, financed by the totally failed urban, jewish, liberal party which has totally disappeared from the public life and has disbanded long time ago – for loosing all credit. It has hired the younger generation of their ilk, but in reality it is led, represented and directed by former SZDSZ politician (Gábor Horn) – a true ideological counter -pole of Orbán from the urban, liberal, jewish subculture. They and the (((power circles))) behind them never really have given up the intention to crawl back into formal power and get the keys of treasury again, and now they want to achieve that on the back of the puppet of their foreign tribesmen, handlers and business partners. Therefore they doctor the numbers a’la Hillary, Biden etc.
https://hu.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horn_G%C3%A1bor
(use translation, no English section there)