Ongoing illegal migration pressure at the Hungarian-Serbian border: the reality behind official data
The latest report by The Telegraph sheds light on the complex and dynamic migration situation at the Hungarian-Serbian border, revealing that it is far from as simple as suggested by official statistics from the European Union and Frontex. Although EU data indicates a significant decrease, between 27 and 58 percent, in illegal border crossings along the Balkan route during the first four months of 2025, the reality on the ground is far more nuanced and intense.
Migrants continue to arrive in large numbers, but their methods have changed. Whereas in the past, large caravans travelled together, today groups of no more than 20 people attempt to cross the barbed-wire border fences. These groups hide in abandoned agricultural buildings and empty factories near the border, relying on human traffickers and ladders to overcome the physical barriers. Most migrants originate from Syria and Afghanistan, aiming primarily to reach the United Kingdom or other Western European countries, The Telegraph says.
Their routes typically pass through Turkey, Bulgaria, and Serbia, where migrants try to avoid detection by border guards and Frontex surveillance cameras. Human trafficking remains rampant but has adapted to stricter border controls: traffickers are increasingly cautious, seek new routes, and transport migrants through more remote, less monitored areas.
A serious incident occurred at the end of May when migrants opened fire on Serbian police officers during a border check near the town of Sid. One migrant was killed in the clash, four illegal immigrants were detained, and several others fled the scene. The police and the prosecutor’s office are working hard to find the fugitives and investigate the circumstances of the incident. Locals fear that such shootings could become a daily occurrence in the region in the future.
According to György Bakondi, Hungary’s chief national security advisor, the number of border violators apprehended at the Hungarian-Serbian border in the first four months of 2025 was more than five times higher than during the same period last year, indicating growing migration pressure. Meanwhile, rivalries among trafficking groups have escalated, leading to armed clashes in the border region. The return of Afghan traffickers has driven up prices, while new players from Asia and Africa have appeared, further intensifying tensions and violence.
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Migration poses not only security but also social challenges for local communities. Some migrants without refugee status resort to criminal activities, while even those granted status may face integration difficulties, the emergence of no-go zones, radicalisation, and potential terrorism risks. Moreover, climate change and worsening economic and social conditions in the Middle East and Afghanistan are expected to trigger new waves of migration in the longer term.
In summary, The Telegraph’s report warns that migration flows at the Hungarian-Serbian border have not ceased but have transformed. Behind the official statistics lies a vibrant, multifaceted, and complex reality that presents serious challenges to border authorities and local societies alike. The life-threatening struggle of migrants seeking a better future, alongside the ongoing adaptation between human traffickers and border enforcement, continues to shape the dynamics of the region, demanding effective and comprehensive responses.
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