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Without an election, PM Orbán already secured a mandate in the next Parliament: here’s the trick
Hungary offers preferential parliamentary seats to its 13 recognised domestic ethnic minorities: a system also found elsewhere, such as in Slovenia and Croatia, where the local Hungarian minority benefits similarly. In Hungary, however, the mechanism has taken an intriguing twist: the number of people registering on Roma ethnic lists has surged in recent days, precisely enough to secure that coveted preferential mandate. At the top of the list stands a Fidesz politician.
Previous German ethnic MP backed Orbán
Political Capital has previously outlined how Hungary’s parliament fills 106 seats from individual constituencies and 93 from party lists. Hungarian citizens with ethnic minority identity and a domestic address may opt to vote on an ethnic list instead of national party lists, thereby electing their own minority representative. So far, only the German minority has succeeded (theoretically, only the Roma could match their numbers), enabling Imre Ritter to enter as a full voting MP in 2018 and 2022. He then aligned with Viktor Orbán and the Fidesz-KDNP two-thirds majority on nearly every issue, professing loyalty to “the government majority of the day”.
This year, Gregor Gallai (Ritter’s former colleague) heads the German ethnic list. A political dark horse, insiders told Válasz Online in November that he is less reliably pro-Fidesz than Ritter. Yet the German list lacks sufficient registrations for a preferential seat, especially with pollsters forecasting record turnout. According to 24.hu, despite Gallai’s efforts to rally support, numbers have plummeted: 27,000 by late February, dipping below 25,000 by 25 March. At least 30,000 registered voters are needed, and more could defect by 9 April.
Roma lists surge ahead
By contrast, one ethnic list has seen a dramatic uptick in registrations, pointing, per Political Capital, to organised effort. This growth is unique: the other 12 lists are haemorrhaging supporters. Roma registrations, which stood at just over 40,000 in early March (on a downward trend), have now neared 43,000.
“As recently as last Wednesday, Kömlő had only 36 names on the roll (one more than in June last year); today, it’s 320. Tiszadada and Hajdúböszörmény posted near-150 spikes. In Zalaszentgrót, a smaller but explosive rise took registered Roma numbers from 2 to 33 in a single day,” the institute noted.
Political Capital attributes this to list leader István Aba-Horváth, who has repeatedly pledged support for Fidesz.
Roma could have won seats before
The Roma’s historical hurdle has been low turnout, not registrations, thwarting a preferential seat. The question now is whether anyone can mobilise these voters to the polls on 12 April.
A preferential mandate goes to the list leader if their ethnic votes reach a quarter of those needed for a national list seat, roughly 22,000-23,000 in the past three elections, likely 25,000 this April, per Political Capital.
Ethnic groups falling short may send a non-voting spokesperson, who enjoys an MP’s salary and staff but no ballot.
If you missed our previous articles concerning the 2026 general elections: