It emerged today that the Tisza government is on course to deliver one of its most significant pledges, with several trillion forints in EU development funding expected to be secured in the near future. Even aside from this, large numbers remain satisfied with Péter Magyar’s performance, including hundreds of thousands who only months ago cast their votes for Viktor Orbán.
According to a fresh poll by the IDEA Institute, 63 per cent of respondents were satisfied with the performance of Magyar and his government in mid-June. The figure is without precedent: no democratically elected Hungarian government has achieved such a result in the past 35 years.
Some 48 per cent said they were “very satisfied”, while a further 14 per cent were “rather satisfied”, suggesting that even former Fidesz voters have joined the ranks of supporters. The survey, cited by hvg.hu, also found a growing share of respondents who believe the country is heading in the right direction, rising from 55 per cent in May to 63 per cent in June. By contrast, in April only 21 per cent expressed satisfaction with the performance of the Orbán government.
Fidesz voters among those backing Tisza
The findings are all the more striking given that the proportion of those who view Hungary’s economic situation negatively has also increased, from 57 to 60 per cent. This is partly attributable to the Tisza government’s deliberate messaging, which has consistently drawn attention to the difficult economic legacy left by successive Orbán administrations.
Magyar has argued that this year’s budget deficit would exceed 8 per cent were it not for the current government, but can now be contained at around 7 per cent. Experts note that this remains exceptionally high, though it may prove manageable both domestically and in the eyes of the European Union with careful framing. At the same time, it complicates the pledged introduction of the euro by 2030. It is also widely believed that the outgoing Orbán government engaged in generous last-minute spending. Meanwhile, the Hungarian RRF plan approved today is expected to unlock several trillion forints in funding within months, improving the fiscal balance.
A separate poll by Medián last week found Tisza’s support at 60 per cent among the overall population and 73 per cent among decided voters—levels that would translate into a commanding four-fifths parliamentary majority in an election.
Orbán’s aura fades
According to Bloomberg, there is currently no effective counterweight to this political force in Hungary. A demonstration held yesterday in support of President Tamás Sulyok underscored Viktor Orbán’s waning appeal: the former prime minister did not attend, and it fell instead to János Áder, a former Fidesz-backed president, to address the crowd—only a few thousand of whom turned out.
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The protest was prompted by a constitutional amendment under which the Tisza majority could remove Sulyok from office, alongside the president of the Constitutional Court.
Bertalan Havasi, Fidesz’s communications director, said Orbán would make his move in due course, but that his presence at Thursday’s rally “would have drawn focus away”.
The modest turnout also calls into question claims by pro-Fidesz commentator István Szakács that half a million supporters would rally behind Orbán. He had suggested that, were Orbán to be arrested, such a crowd would mobilise to secure his release.
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Yes, Magyar is off to a great start.
Plenty of time for things to go awry, however.
I have witnessed this in my country many times.
Case in point, George Herbert Walker Bush – our president from 1989-1993.
In the early-middle part of his term his approval was an overwhelming 80-90%
Just a couple of years later, however, he lost his reelection bid.