Master plan leaked? New electoral law may make PM Orbán invincible in Hungary and the EU

The Hungarian government denies all news concerning a fundamental change in Hungary’s electoral law, resulting in 7-10 seats in the Hungarian Parliament for PM Viktor Orbán’s co-ruling Fidesz-KDNP alliance. Meanwhile, some news outlets argue the government is measuring the pros and cons of a relevant modification and regard France’s electoral system as an example. However, they would only take out elements favouring them.

Millions of Hungarians live abroad

The Hungarian electoral system struggles with multiple challenges. First, the constituencies did not follow population changes. The 2011 law allows a maximum of 15% difference in plus or minus from the average. For example, in Pest County, the constituencies are very populous thanks to the migration of the Budapest locals due to the high property prices. Meanwhile, Tolna County has three constituencies, but its number of residents is only enough for two.

As a result, the Hungarian electoral system could be reformed to create a better, more democratic framework. According to Válasz Online, the Hungarian government led by PM Viktor Orbán is up to something more.

There are millions of Hungarians living abroad. Some have Hungarian addresses because they were born in the country but left it, surveys tell prominently due to the low wages to work in the West. They can cast their ballots, but only if they do so at a Hungarian embassy or consulate. In some countries, that is challenging. Thus, many local Hungarians living and working in West Europe or the USA do not vote.

The case of Hungarians living in the Carpathian basin beyond the borders of Hungary is different. They live in regions formerly part of Hungary. They were born there, retained their national identity, and after a 2010 modification, acquired Hungarian citizenship easier.

They can vote via mail, so the voting process is much easier. For example, a Hungarian born in Szombathely and sharing a Liverpool flat with his mate born in Sepsiszentgyörgy (Transylvania) can vote, provided he travels to one of the Hungarian consulates or embassies in the UK, while his Transylvanian friend can vote via mail. In the 2024 European Parliamentary elections, Péter Magyar’s opposition party beat Fidesz at the embassies and consulates with 50.8%. Meanwhile, Fidesz received less than 20%. The national outcome was 44.8% for Fidesz and 29.6% for Péter Magyar’s Tisza Party.

New electoral law could mean 7-10 mandates for Fidesz

Hundreds of thousands of Hungarians living in the Carpathian basin participated in the 2022 general elections. More than 93% of them chose Orbán and Fidesz. And Hungary’s strongman would rely on them to secure his seat in 2026, Válasz Online argues.

The Hungarian news outlet wrote that based on their informants, Orbán cabinet experts were measuring a modification following the French example. That would mean the creation of at least seven new constituencies beyond the borders because around 70 thousand people elect one MP in Hungary’s 199-seat Parliament, and there are half a million eligible people in the Carpathian basin. Based on Válasz Online, the new system would not mean that Hungarians living or working in Western Europe or the USA could elect MPs to the Hungarian Parliament. The new constituencies would be in the Carpathian basin.

Péter Magyar, the new leader of the anti-Orbán opposition (previously a high-ranked member of Fidesz and the ex-husband of former Justice Minister Judit Varga), broke the news about the possible electoral law modification. Since Fidesz has more than 90% abroad and the extra votes not needed for the victory strengthen the party lists, we can say that such a new system could give more than seven more parliamentary seats to Orbán’s Fidesz. If the number of parliament members did not change, such a modification would make a victory over Fidesz more difficult in 2026. Ákos Hadházy, a prominent member and an MP of the Hungarian opposition, talked about a plan of 7+2 constituencies in Transylvania and Serbia.

The government denies

Mátyás Bódi, an expert of Választási Földrajz (Electoral geography), told RTL Klub that the co-ruling Fidesz-KDNP could secure even ten mandates for the next parliamentary period and even a weaker result could gain a supermajority for Orbán.

The Justice Ministry denied that they were mulling over the creation of new constituencies abroad. They called it a gossip.

Válasz Online added that all changes in the Hungarian electoral law concerning parliamentary or municipal elections favoured Fidesz between 2010 and 2024.

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Featured image: Viktor Orbán casting his ballot in 2010.

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