Experts: there were far more participants at Péter Magyar’s 15 March rally, but does that mean Orbán will lose the election?

Sociologist Andrea Szabó and her team measured the crowd attending PM Viktor Orbán’s “Peace March” and Péter Magyar’s “National March”. She said Magyar could gather three times as many people as Orbán in Budapest. However, does that mean his Tisza Party has such a crushing advantage before the 12 April elections?

Péter Magyar gathered more people in Budapest

According to Szeretlek Magyarország, Andrea Szabó and her team measured the number of people attending the two great events organised to celebrate the heroes of the 15 March 1848 revolution and freedom fight of Hungary. She said that in the 10th minute of Orbán’s and Magyar’s speeches, there were 58,000 people on the Peace March and 162,000 on the National March. That means Péter Magyar could gather three times as many people.

The estimate was produced using a stratified sampling method: 12 observer zones were defined for the Peace March and 17 for the longer National March. Within the zones, two-person teams took photos using a 3-metre selfie stick and counted the crowd density in a 4×4 metre area.

Szabó added that the error margin of their estimate is not ±3.2% like in the case of polls, but 10–15%.

The Hungarian Tourism Agency said 180,000 people listened to Orbán and only 150,000 to Magyar that day.

On 23 October, Szabó said that there were 85,000–92,000 people on Orbán’s Peace March and 160,000–170,000 attended Péter Magyar’s event. In that case, the Kormányzati Tájékoztatási Központ (Government Information Centre) talked about 80,000 people and 45,000 people, respectively.

What does that mean concerning the April elections?

Experts agree that little. Even if Szabó is right and three times as many people attended Magyar’s event, that means almost nothing concerning the outcome. Orbán’s ruling Fidesz is not strong in Budapest, which has a leftist mayor and where the Fidesz list received less than 35% in the 2024 municipal elections.

Therefore, it is natural that Péter Magyar seems to be stronger in the Hungarian capital than Orbán’s Fidesz.

Experts agree that both political parties could be proud of their events. Both were able to gather enough people to make good photos of the crowd and make people believe that they can win the elections if they work hard.

Polls have been showing Péter Magyar’s lead since November 2024, but Fidesz is strong in the rural constituencies. Therefore, a lot will depend on the mobilisation skills of the two parties. It is even imaginable that Péter Magyar’s Tisza will win the elections but will not be able to form a government. That is because the Hungarian election is decided in the constituencies, where there are large inequalities favouring Fidesz.

If you missed our previous articles concerning the 2026 general elections in Hungary:

• Orbán outlines why Hungary may need to quit the EU: Huxit possible if he wins again?
• PM Orbán’s latest offer to Zelensky: EU money for Russian crude – here’s Ukraine’s answer