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New poll hints at a surprising twist for the 2026 election in Hungary: should many be worried?
Despite the still significant lead held by Péter Magyar and the Tisza coalition over Orbán’s Fidesz party, the latest survey suggests the 2026 election race is far from decided. The IDEA Institute found that while the challenger’s advantage is shrinking, the nearly 16-year incumbent prime minister and his party are gaining ground after a period of decline in popularity.
Has Fidesz turned the tide for the 2026 election?
The research, also highlighted by Telex, confirms a trend observed by major independent polling bodies since around the summer. It shows the two main opposing camps have roughly stabilised, halting the government parties’ erosion and Tisza’s rise. In fact, probably thanks to a series of announced welfare measures, Orbán’s Fidesz appears to be reversing its downward trajectory. Earlier in the summer, political analyst Péter Tölgyessy even suggested the Hungarian public’s mood could shift entirely, giving Tisza a two-thirds majority similar to what Horn’s party achieved in 1994 or Fidesz in 2010.
The list of social benefits is lengthy: a 14th-monthly pension, a 3% subsidised housing loan—which is half the market interest rate in Hungary—1 million forint support for public sector workers, business loans, and more. Unsurprisingly, these measures contributed to the consumer confidence index reaching an 11-month high at the start of November, a reliable predictor of election outcomes.
A two-party parliament?
Independent institutes had already signalled this summer that Fidesz’s decline was stabilising. The IDEA survey now confirms the gap between the two parties is closing. Experts say the most meaningful data at this stage comes from the overall population: according to the newest poll, Tisza stands at 35%, with the government parties at 29%. This means over a third of Hungarian adults support Tisza, and about one-quarter back Fidesz. As political analyst Gábor Török points out, while this is still a significant lead for Tisza, the trend is worth watching closely.
If I have understood Hungarians, of every political stripe, correctly – the economic frustration is so high that there is a serious chance the challenger, Magyar Péter, could very well win.
Magyar certainly also has plenty of hidden support, from NGOs to the halls of Deep State bureaucracies throughout the western part of The West.
That said, I put Orbán Viktor’s chances to win yet another election, I put it at better than 50%, perhaps as high as 58%, as of this writing.
Orbán Viktor has just too much support and good will, from nooks and crannies all over the world. Moreover, I have to think that his ability to punch way above his weight has to be impressive to more than a few of his countrymen.
Somehow Hungary, despite having been badly damaged in the 20th century; despite a weak economy, and despite a small landlocked population, not to mention a language that is a unremittingly hostile, finds itself the Schwerpunkt of many decisive events. occurring, and, likely, those yet to come.
This is largely Orbán Viktor’s doing – like him or not.
When Orbán Viktor dies, he will likely be the Hungarian most Westerners remember – after Lugosi Béla and Ferenc Liszt.
With the election spending bonanza arriving early (the stated 14th-monthly pension, the 3% subsidised housing loan, 1 million forint support for public sector workers, business loans, etc.).
These spending measures (wage hikes, home-loan support, pension top-up) are estimated to be worth around 2 percent of GDP. According to analysts at S&P Global Ratings, this could cost us “more than 1% of GDP” per annum.
Budget forecasts point to the deficit being around 4.5 percent of GDP, with these pre-election measures cited as a contributing factor. Oh – wait! Our Politicians have already upped the stakes – 5 percent it is:
https://think.ing.com/snaps/hungarian-governments-budget-bombshell-sends-shockwaves/
Our credit rating is already the lowest level of investment grade – up for reassessment on November 24 and not looking particularly rosy. FAZIT – our Politicians will do anything to cling on to power!