Romania ahead of Hungary in terms of GDP, recession inevitable this year

For a brief period this spring, Romania has surpassed Hungary in terms of GDP. However, six months later, our neighbouring country has once again surged ahead of us, signalling Hungary’s falling position in the region. Additionally, experts are forecasting an inevitable recession for this year. Is there a chance for GDP growth next year? We’ll examine this pressing question in our article.

Romania leads Hungary in GDP

Portfolio reported that Eurostat revised the EU GDP per capita statistics on the 11th of October. Romania briefly surpassed Hungary’s GDP performance this spring, but now, six months later, the neighbouring country boasts better statistics again. Hungary’s GDP capita stands at 76.6% of the EU average, while Romania performed slightly better at 76.7%. Although Hungary has been gradually closing the gap with the EU average, Romania has demonstrated significantly faster development, being 2.5 times as efficient as Hungary in this regard.

Hungary lags behind regionally

Examining the past decade, Hungary ranks 11th in the list of countries with the fastest convergence. Unfortunately, most of the countries preceding Hungary on the list are regional competitors. While Hungary’s performance is improving and approaching the EU average step by step, its regional performance is deteriorating. According to the latest GDP per capita statistics, only Lithuania, Croatia, Slovakia, Greece and Bulgaria have weaker performance than Hungary. However, Lithuania and Croatia could soon surpass Hungary in terms of development rate.

Inevitable recession

Világgazdaság reports a gloomy outlook for Hungary’s performance in 2023. Experts believe that the chances of Hungary avoiding a recession this year are slim. Gábor Regős, Professional Manager of Makronóm Institution, stated:

“Avoiding a recession this year would require a miracle.”

Analysts predict a decline of 0.9% by some, while others anticipate a 0.3% drop in 2023. Thus, all agree that Hungary is likely to end the year in a recession. The only hope lies in significant growth in the third and fourth quarters, though there are no signs of substantial development in the third quarter at the moment. Next year appears more promising according to experts and analysts, with most forecasting a growth of 3%, and some optimistic predictions reaching 4%.

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6 Comments

Jimmy says:

14/10/2023 at 16:01

Go Romania!
Anonymous says:

14/10/2023 at 22:58

Romania was always looked at as a backward place where the poor cousins of Hungary lived in Transylvania. Orbanomics has served to suppress growth in Hungary while Romania does the right things for development. Economists need to look closely at the differences between the two countries and suggest changes in Hungary. Could corruption be a problem?
Stefan says:

15/10/2023 at 12:15

Respect for Hungary! We can grow together! With love from Romania!
Liviu Petre says:

15/10/2023 at 12:48

Corruption could be an explanation but it’s not the only one, considering that Romania also isn’t corruption free. Possibly we in Romania work somehow more and we work better. The explanation should be more complex and it needs more analysis.
Aleks Kew says:

10/11/2023 at 01:06

Hard to see these datas in any significant international actors.(IMF, World Bank) I assume this is an ordered falsification from EU parliament, who directly controlling Eurostat. According to IMF and Worod Bank Hungary leading with 2500-3000 $ (in nominal and PPP) ahead of Romania, and even in the 2028 long term predictions I don’t see any turn around.
And I never saw these kind of datas – what it mean this percentage based counting. 76, 7% contra 76,6 %. What it means this by numbers?
I’m sorry to say but this is ridiculous…
I want to warn you that international investors give a shit about Eurostat datas, they taking care only IMF and Workd Bank. Not accidentaly, the wikipedia pages also refering primarilycto the IMF datas. And in that: Hungary 21.075 USD, Romania 18.413 USD. In PPP Hungary 43.601 USD, Romania 41.029 USD.
Levent says:

10/11/2023 at 19:21

Hungary is definitely much better than Romania in terms of economic development, but as Hungary’s government is much disliked by Brussels and Romania is favoured, so every opinion and data coming from EU’s institutions should ve looked at very carefully. EU’s political establishment with its corrupt leaders seeking specific agenda favouring some countries or companies has unfortunaately shown that they are absolutley unreliable.Those who have doubts compare the situation on the ground. Just passing the border on either side gives enough information about the situation in both countries.