Shrinking trade surplus highlights Hungary’s growing economic woes

Hungary had a EUR 1.039bn trade surplus in October, a second reading of data released by the Central Statistics Office (KSH) on Monday shows.

Latest trade surplus data

Exports fell 0.5pc year-on-year to EUR 12.927bn. Imports edged down 0.1pc to EUR 11.888bn, KSH said. Trade with other European Union member states accounted for 76pc of Hungary’s exports and 71pc of its monthly imports.

For the period January-October, Hungary had a trade surplus of EUR 10.368bn. Exports fell 3.9pc to EUR 121.341bn and imports declined 6.3pc to EUR 110.973bn. Hungary’s terms of trade improved 0.7pc during the period as the forint weakened 2.7pc against the euro and 2.1pc to the dollar.

In October 2024 compared to a year earlier:

The value of export decreased by 0.5% and that of import by 0.1% in EUR terms.

According to calendar-adjusted data, the volume of export lessened by 4.0%, that of import decreased by 1.8%.

The balance of the external trade in goods deteriorated by EUR 53 million. (The balance showed a EUR 74 million higher surplus than the one published in the first estimate.)

The HUF price level of the external trade in goods increased by 4.0% in exports and by 2.7% in imports, compared to the same month of the previous year. The terms of trade improved by 1.3%. The HUF exchange rate depreciated by 4.2% against the EUR and by 0.9% against the US dollar.

The export volume of machinery and transport equipment decreased by 3.4%, its import volume did not change. The volume of the commodity group of electrical machinery, apparatus and appliances, n.e.s. decreased nearly by one-fifth in exports, decreasing by one-tenth in imports, too, compared to the same period of last year. The export volume of the commodity group of road vehicles slightly declined, its import volume increased in an equal degree, compared to the base period. The export volume of the commodity group telecommunication and sound recording and reproducing apparatus slightly decreased, its import volume, however, improved by almost one-fourth. The volume of the power generating machinery and equipment commodity group decreased somewhat on the export side, and was around one-fifth lower on the import one, year-on-year. The aggregate commodity group of machinery and transport equipment increased the volume decline in total turnover by 2.0 percentage points on the export side while it did not have an impact on the import turnover.

The export volume of manufactured goods increased by 4.1%, their import volume by 0.5%. The increase in export volume was due to the significant volume increase in medicinal and pharmaceutical products. The growth in the volume of imports can also be attributed to the group of medicinal and pharmaceutical products. The aggregate commodity group of manufactured goods offset the volume decline in total turnover by 1.2 percentage points in exports and increased the growth in import volume by 0.2 percentage points.

The export volume of fuels and electric energy increased by 2.7%, their import volume was 3.8% higher than one year earlier. The growth on both the export and import side is owing to the increase in the volume of petroleum, petroleum products and related materials.The change in the turnover of fuels and electric energy slowed the volume decline in total turnover by 0.1 percentage point in exports and hastened the general increase in import volume by 0.3.

The export volume of food, beverages and tobacco became 6.3% higher, their import volume increased by 8.3%. The growth in export was largely influenced by the change in the turnover of miscellaneous edible products and preparations, the increase in import was influenced by the turnover change of cereals and cereal preparations. The volume change realised by the aggregate commodity group offset the total export decrease by 0.5 percentage points, and strengthened the import growth by 0.5 percentage points.

The volume of exports to the EU-27 Member States lessened by 3.1%, and the import from there increased by 3.6%. The balance of the external trade in goods declined by EUR 441 million, generating a surplus of EUR 1304 million. This group of countries accounted for 76% of exports and 71% of imports.

In the extra-EU-27 trade, the volume of export increased by 9.3%, that of import lessened by 3.6%. The external trade balance in goods with these countries improved by EUR 388 million, showing a deficit of EUR 265 million.