U.S. begins to reopen economy, impact on November elections unknown

Topeka, US. Photo: MTI/AP/Charlie Riedel

It is crucial for Trump to hold onto the white working class, which comprises his main base of support but is disproportionately impacted by the lockdown because most in that group cannot work from home.

Christopher Galdieri, assistant professor at Saint Anselm College, told Xinhua that if blue collar whites think Trump is making things worse, they may move away from him in large enough numbers to complicate his re-election strategy.

Clay Ramsay, a senior research associate at the Center for International and Security Studies at University of Maryland, said Trump may yet hold onto his key supporters, as the president has used his daily briefings to distance himself from health officials who caution against re-opening too soon.

“So those who are disaffected with the stay-at-home policies won’t blame the president for them,” Ramsay said.

The state of the economy come November will also be a major issue that will impact the elections.

Perhaps working in Trump’s favor is evidence from past pandemics that areas that took earlier, more stringent measures saw a stronger recovery than elsewhere. In an election that experts said will be determined by the electoral college rather than the national vote, that dynamic will be important.

It remains unknown whether the United States will see a V-shape recovery or a longer recession that some economists are now predicting. Many Americans, climbing the walls under stay-at-home guidelines, are champing at the bit to go out. Many observers predict a surge in customers at restaurants, hair salons and shopping malls, once they reopen.

But at the same time, many states are espousing a slow return to normalcy, which means requiring restaurants and other businesses to operate at a 50-percent capacity, in a bid to prevent new hot spots from popping up.

West said a bad economy come November will be hard for Trump to deal with, as the surging economy has been the hallmark of his re-election strategy.