Ukraine’s proposed ban on Russian oil transit raises concerns for Hungary and Slovakia
The Ukrainian parliament is considering a bill to halt the transit of Russian oil and gas through its territory, a move that could significantly impact Hungary and Slovakia. The opposition European Solidarity Party, led by former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, introduced the proposal, citing national security concerns and the desire to limit Russia’s revenues used to finance the ongoing war.
Key provisions of the bill
Registered as Bill No. 12380, the legislation seeks to prohibit Russian oil and gas transit through Ukraine’s infrastructure, including the Druzhba (Friendship) pipeline, which supplies Hungary and Slovakia. An accompanying resolution urges the Ukrainian government to develop a detailed cessation plan within 30 days and to implement the full transit halt within three months, Liga.net reports.
The bill, however, allows exceptions for obligations under international agreements or decisions by the European Union. In addition, it calls for assessing the economic, social, and environmental consequences of such a move and coordinating with international partners to mitigate diplomatic or economic fallout.
Background: Hungary and Slovakia’s reliance on Russian oil
The Druzhba pipeline’s southern branch, exempted from the EU’s 2022 partial embargo on Russian oil, remains a crucial energy source for Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic, G7 writes. While the Czech Republic plans to end its Russian oil imports by 2025, Hungary and Slovakia have not announced similar measures. In fact, both nations have increased their imports of Russian oil in recent years.
Hungary’s government has been vocal about its opposition to ceasing Russian energy imports, emphasising the economic challenges such a move would create. Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó responded to the Ukrainian proposal by warning that Ukraine’s EU accession bid requires unanimous approval from member states, urging Ukraine not to jeopardise its relationship with EU countries through unilateral decisions.
Broader implications
The current agreement for Russian oil transit through Ukraine, signed by Ukrtransnafta and Russia’s Transneft, remains valid until 1 January 2030. However, the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine ceased on 1 January 2025, following the expiration of a separate contract between Gazprom and Naftogaz.
Energy analysts suggest that halting oil transit could have severe repercussions for Ukraine. While the proposal aims to weaken Russia’s economic footing, Ukraine itself relies on transit fees as a significant source of revenue. “Such a move could lead to substantial losses for Ukraine,” remarked Balázs Jarábik, an analyst at the Vienna Institute for Human Sciences.
EU’s energy transition
The EU plans to completely phase out Russian oil and gas imports by 2027, giving Hungary’s MOL Group enough time to adjust its refineries for alternative sources. However, Hungary’s government has shown little inclination to accelerate this transition. Despite the ambitious goals of the European Solidarity Party’s proposal, experts believe the bill is unlikely to pass. Some speculate that if Ukraine decides to halt oil transit, it may occur indirectly through technical disruptions rather than formal legislation.
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