According to the United Nations’ 2017 Revision of World Population Prospects report, a quarter of Central and East Europe’s population could vanish by the end of the century unless a big change happens. Hvg.hu writes that even though this is only an estimation, it’s quite shocking that only six million people are expected to live in Hungary by 2100.
The 2017 Revision of World Population Prospects is the twenty-fifth version of official United Nations population ‘estimates and projections’ that has been prepared by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat.
According to the report, the total population of the Earth is expected to grow to 11.2 billion from 7.6 million by the end of the century, while the population of Europe will be constantly decreasing. This won’t cause big problems in West Europe, but the depopulation of our region could be very dangerous.
“Much of the overall increase in population between now and 2050 is projected to occur either in high fertility countries, mostly in Africa, or in countries with large populations. From 2017 to 2050, it is expected that half of the world’s population growth will be concentrated in just nine countries: India, Nigeria, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan, Ethiopia, the United Republic of Tanzania, the United States of America, Uganda and Indonesia (ordered by their expected contribution to total growth).”
Experts believe that the population of Hungary in 2100 will only be the 62.5% of the population of 2000. Regarding some of the indicators, the total fertility rate (live births per woman) of Hungary dropped dramatically between 1980 and 1990. The rate is currently 1.40 but it is expected to increase to 1.74 by 2100.
The Hungarian life expectancy at birth rate is also expected to increase by the end of the century. The current 76.1 years will grow to 86.7 years. The under-five mortality rate (deaths under age five per 1,000 live births) is expected to drop from 5 to 2.1.
But other countries in the region will suffer from an even bigger population loss. The population of Moldova and Bulgaria could be halved, while the population of Poland will only be slightly more than the half of the data from the turn of century. The Czech Republic is in the best position in the region, the population is expected to decrease by 14% only.