Based on the British epidemic curve, here is when Hungary will reopen!

The epidemic curve of the UK and Hungary follows a similar path, with an average delay of 8 weeks. Thanks to this, on the basis of the British epidemic situation, it can be concluded when all the restrictions will be lifted in Hungary. 

During the second wave of the pandemic, Hungary could forecast the next 10-14 days based on the pandemic situation in Austria. However, this is no longer relevant. As a result of the intensity of the third wave – that seems to have its peak soon – and the rapid vaccination program in Hungary, the epidemic situation of the country is now most comparable to that of Great Britain.

In the island country, the vaccination program of the population is progressing at a similar rate as in Hungary, and in the last wave of the pandemic, the British variant, which, according to experts, is the main reason for the rapid spread of the coronavirus in Hungary, has already played a significant role. Therefore, it is worth comparing the numbers there and in Hungary.

As Hungarian news portal Magyar Nemzet reports, the UK epidemic curve began to rise on 1st December 2020 and peaked in mid-January. Since then, there has been a steady decline in the number of new infections registered. With a 10-week discrepancy, a similar trend can be observed in Hungary where the number of new infections started to increase at the beginning of February and had its peak on 29th March.

Accordingly, the path of the Hungarian curve shows the decline of the British wave with a ten-week (70-day) delay.

Due to supply problems, the vaccination of the Hungarian population could not go as planned. However, from 28th February, the use of the Russian and Chinese vaccines accelerated the pace, and the increase in the vaccination rate was almost the same as in the UK. Then, Hungary was only 42 days behind the island nation. In mid-March, the pace of vaccination slowed slightly, increasing the time lag to 46 days.