Hungary left behind – We are to be taken over by Bulgaria as well

Global economic growth is set to slow this year and next, according to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) latest economic forecast. As we reported, Romania has already overtaken Hungary in terms of GDP. It seems that not only Romania but also Bulgaria will do better than Hungary this year.

Economic fall of the V4 countries

According to the IMF’s latest forecast, global economic growth could fall from 3.5% in 2022 to 3.0% this year and 2.9% in 2024. This is well below the historic peak of 3.8% last recorded in 2019, Pénzcentrum reports. How can Hungary and the countries in the region perform? The Hungarian economic news portal has investigated this question.

According to the IMF data, while last year the V4 countries had a relatively buoyant economic growth rate of between 1.5 and 4.6%, this year it is a very modest -0.3-1.3%. Sadly, there is little prospect of a return to the previous pace in the near future, with the IMF forecasting an expansion intensity of between 2.3 and 3.1% in 2024. Hungary and Poland are likely to be hit hardest by the slowdown, as these two countries saw their economic growth rates fall the most between 2022 and 2023.

Romania, Bulgaria far from recession

As we reported, Romania has taken over Hungary in terms of GDP. Romania’s economy grew by 4.7% last year and the IMF forecasts a 2.2% increase this year. Meanwhile, in 2024 the economy of the country could grow by 3.8 percent overall. This means that Romania will be far from the recession that Hungary is likely to sink into this year.

The Bulgarian economy is also far from recession. In 2022, it grew by 3.4%, and this year, it is forecast to grow by 1.7 percent. In 2024, the growth is expected to be 3.2 percent, which is also higher than in Hungary.

There’s no reaching Austria

“Forget about catching up with Austria! The goal is to avoid being left behind Romania.” This is one of the ways Zsolt Balásy summed up the crisis period of the Hungarian economy. The analyst of Hold Alapkezelő (Hold Fund Management) told Pénzcentrum that it is worrying that we have failed badly in the economic stress test of recent years. He added that this is not only worsening the country’s prospects in the short term.

According to the expert, we are now on the Serbian path instead of the EU integration path. This almost guarantees that the economic prosperity of the 2010s will not return.

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Unfortunately, it is not only the economy that is experiencing a falling trend in Hungary. The country’s main railway company, MÁV, is not at the top of the situation either: The entire Budapest-Vienna railway line will be closed: chaos will reign?