Eurostat investigates: inflation in Hungary calculated fraudulently?
Eurostat is in talks with the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH) on the method of calculating energy inflation, the European Union’s statistical office has told Reuters. There are growing doubts about the reliability of Hungarian statistics.
According to Portfolio’s review, Eurostat wrote that it “regularly checks compliance with methodological guidelines by EU member states.” They added that negotiations with Hungary on the calculation of energy inflation began in the autumn and “it is not yet known when they will be concluded”.
Political pressure to publish better inflation data?
In recent months, there have been several press reports that the data from the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH) may be particularly good at the suggestion of higher-ups. In particular, there were concerns among some analysts about the revision of the second quarter GDP data and inflation falling below 10 percent in October, Portfolio reports. Asked by Reuters whether Hungarian inflation data could be revised as a result of the negotiations, Eurostat said that this was a possibility, but very rare.
Népszava recently reported that several economists doubted that inflation would really have fallen below 10% in October. According to experts interviewed by the news portal, if the KSH had calculated the change in energy prices based on the methodology used in previous years, inflation in October would have been somewhere between 11-12%.
Foreign market participants notice Hungarian data
In a statement on Wednesday, the statistical office strongly rejected the accusations. It stressed that its calculations on inflation data were “fully in line with European statistical guidelines”. However, the KSH’s methodology for calculating energy inflation has already caught the eye of foreign market participants, according to Portfolio.
In his Thursday morning commentary, Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose specifically discusses the uncertainty surrounding the Hungarian data. The most serious concern, he said, is that the government is interfering in the work of the KSH from above, i.e. that more favourable data are being published under political pressure. However, it is difficult for an outside observer to judge how much of this is true.
According to Ghose, there are some countries where the reliability of GDP and inflation data is seriously questioned, such as Turkey and Russia. “These are typically countries that are not recommended for investment by credit rating agencies, which is telling in itself,” the analyst said.
In the case of Hungary, these concerns are not widespread for the time being, as the KSH has to comply with European standards and Eurostat is constantly reviewing the reliability of Hungarian data.
Read also:
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- What can we expect from the Hungarian real estate market?
KSH rejects reports of Eurostat investigation
Contrary to media reports, the EU’s statistical office, Eurostat, has not launched an investigation against Hungary’s Central Statistical Office (KSH), KSH said in a statement on Friday. Eurostat has been in constant dialogue with the corresponding offices of all member states on issues of methodology, KSH said, responding to a Reuters report. “KSH’s methodology is in line with the European Commission’s relevant regulations,” it said. “KSH calls on journalists to always fact-check politically motivated statements before publishing them,” the statement said.
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3 Comments
You don’t need to be a Rhodes Scholar, to know that the statistical data that is supplied comes out of the Hungarian Central Statistical Office are DOCTORED, manipulated, and don’t practice FACT in there reporting requirement and information.
It’s a scam, part of the practice we know and associate with the Orban led Government, that is a componentry of there propaganda machine.
We know the control of the media, the judiciary the ruling by decree the Orban Government see as a right of there Governance in Hungary, and this information, that comes out of the Hungarian Central Statistic’s Office, made up of figures to “paint pictures” that are signed off by the Government of the day, from the desks of the responsible Ministers, that the Statistical Data falls under there Ministerial portfolios.
It’s a “rubbery” scam, and point to Inflation for starters, what Hungary has been getting told, out of the Hungarian Central Statistical Office, for the past 18 months – manipulated by the Government prior to being released into the Public arena – the people population of Hungary, just all DOCTORED that are not factual in the transparency that are made public, but “tailored” to what the Orban Government demand they be.
Why does Hungary keep making the mistake of dealing with all anti-Hungarian EU agencies. It is a waste of time and money.
Little bit of context. And it is “lefty” Hungarian economists from Corvinus University who rang the alarm bell first. They could not get the numbers to reconcile outcomes (like 2+1=4 … “reject the evidence of your eyes and ears!”)
https://www.intellinews.com/hungarian-economists-say-cpi-figures-are-distorted-by-change-in-methodology-304331/
“After the 2022 election, the oversight of the KSH was transferred from the Prime Minister’s chief of staff to Antal Rogan, who heads the Prime Minister’s Cabinet Office. The former Budapest district mayor has become one of the most powerful ministers in the cabinet. The 51-year-old politician also oversees Hungary’s intelligence services and is in charge of government communication and propaganda.”
Also, didn’t realize the area Carmelite monastery in the Buda Castle, where Mr. Orbáns office is located, has been cordoned off to block access for journalists to interview ministers arriving for the weekly cabinet meetings. Not surprising, though. Transparency and accountability are best avoided.