The Hungarian forint has reached a new low

The Hungarian forint experienced a further decline on Tuesday morning, marking a new low for the currency in 2024.

Zoltán Varga, a senior analyst at Equilor Befektetési Plc, expressed his belief that the depreciation of the forint exchange rate is not yet over.

During Tuesday morning trading, the forint weakened once again, reaching a rate of 385 against the euro. This is the lowest level recorded since December 2023, indicating that the Hungarian currency has hit its lowest point this year. Additionally, Varga noted that the Polish zloty is also experiencing a similar decline in value alongside the forint.

“In addition, yesterday’s suggestion by the Ministry of National Economy that the benchmark for lending rates should be switched from BUBOR to DKJ yields could also contribute to the weakening of the forint. We have already received a warning from Standard & Poor’s, stating that this move could undermine investor confidence,” said Zoltán Varga.

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The Equilor analyst added that we have not reached the bottom yet. According to the expert, the interest rate decision meeting of the European Central Bank on Thursday afternoon will be a key event to watch for this week. Even though interest rates are not expected to change, investors are eagerly awaiting any messages from Christine Lagarde, Varga explained. He also mentioned the contradictory statements made by central bankers in recent weeks regarding the optimal timing for initiating a rate-cutting cycle. Therefore, it is crucial to understand the views of the central bank governor and the official position on this matter, index.hu writes.

“If the price were to cross the 385 level later on, the 387-390 range could be realistic, but negative corrections could occur in the meantime,” the expert said. He added that such a rate hike is not expected to influence the MNB’s decision, as it mainly takes inflation into account.

The analyst also mentioned the upcoming release of the US fourth quarter preliminary GDP data on Thursday and the December domestic unemployment rate on Friday morning, which could further influence the exchange rate this week

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2 Comments

Nick says:

24/01/2024 at 00:41

This will introduce more inflation in Hungary. This of course will hurt the Hungarians.
It is imperative that the Finance Management in the Hungarian Government be immediately reorganized to include individuals possessing higher intelligence levels than the present incumbents.
Dishevelment / Disarray: says:

24/01/2024 at 09:49

Laughable comments on the Economic & Financial “Declining” position of the Hungarian Economy – coming out the office of the Finance Minister – Mihaly Varga, and from the “Mouth” of the Deputy Governor of the Hungarian Central Bank – made in Vienna, in recent days “sprouting off” big changes coming on the up-side for the forint, possible 1% drop – “sooner than later” – in interest rates.
These “supposed” educated individuals in Finance & Economics – that encases the environments of there employment or engagement, they ALL are getting it HORRENDOUSLY wrong in commentating on the “sickly” Economic/Finance – the Economy of Hungary.
“Don’t sell FLOWERS – promote they are available for SALE, when there are Nil in the garden to pick.
Appalling standard quality of commentary – that could we must NEVER forget an Orban directive driven under the word – PROPAGANDA.
Hungary’s – financial & economic, inclusive of the forint, remains in a downward trend, that the nadir of its DECLINE, the “pit” bottom remains a blackened hole.