New poll: PM Orbán can lose his seat after 15 years of enormous victories – UPDATED: cabinet reaction
PM Viktor Orbán has been the prime minister of Hungary for 15 years. He won supermajorities in four general elections after 2010, and Fidesz, his political party, has always been first in polls since 2006. Now, former Justice Minister Judit Varga’s ex-husband, Péter Magyar, and his Tisza Party are leading the polls, and it seems he can convince the vast majority of the anti-Orbán voters, which can be enough to win the 2026 general elections. The latest poll, for example, showed that the 2026 parliament will contain only three groups instead of the current Fidesz-KDNP supermajority and the fragmented opposition.
PM Orbán may lose the upcoming general elections
According to the latest opinion poll published by Medián, one of the most trustworthy Hungarian pollsters, the new parliament will contain only three political communities: Orbán’s Fidesz-KDNP, Magyar’s Tisza and the right-radical Mi Hazánk (Our Homeland). Even former PM Gyurcsány has little chance to win a parliamentary mandate with his Democratic Coalition by crossing the 5% threshold.
Mr Magyar broke into Hungarian politics following the clemency scandal of former President Katalin Novák. First, he seemed to be the critic of Minister Antal Rogán only, and it appeared that he would not exclude cooperation with Orbán. Later, he turned against the Orbán system and became its main challenger despite helping it and serving as the CEO of the state-owned Student Loan Centre (Diákhitel Központ) before.
HVG hid the detailed results of the latest Medián poll behind a paywall, but 24.hu discussed its main findings in an article. Among those who have a party preference and say they would certainly vote in the next elections, Tisza leads with 46%, while Fidesz stands only at 37%. These results came after PM Orbán’s major announcements concerning tax cuts for families raising kids, VAT reimbursement for pensioners and cheap loans for the Hungarian SME sector. This may mean that promises will not win the elections for Orbán’s Fidesz. We wrote HERE that the Hungarian economy is struggling and covered HERE that too many Hungarians leave the country to earn more in Western European countries.
Tisza supporters are very enthusiastic
Interestingly, Tisza voters seem more enthusiastic about participating in the upcoming elections: 90% said they would go, while that rate is only 80% concerning Fidesz backers. The new parliament would consist of the right-radical Mi Hazánk (Our Homeland) Party with 6% while the Two-Tailed Dog Party is below the 5% threshold with only 1%.
Based on the Medián findings, 56% of Hungarians would vote for an administration change, and only 35% would like PM Orbán to continue governing. Furthermore, Medián found that Péter Magyar’s VAT cut is more popular than Orbán’s VAT redemption for pensioners.
Hungarians are pro-EU
Moreover, Medián shared another poll showing that 2/3rds of Hungarians believe things are going in the wrong direction. 86% of Hungarians support Hungary’s EU membership despite the Hungarian government’s decade-long smear campaign against Brussels. Even 75% of the Fidesz supporters are pro-EU.
Concerning the war in Ukraine, Medián found that half of Hungarians believe Putin’s war is an unjustified aggression. Meanwhile, 37% believe that the reason for Russia’s attack on Ukraine is to protect its interests and security. Medián underscored that the rate of Russian supporters was lower in 2022 (28%). 2/3rds of the Fidesz supporters are in the latter group, while 86% of the Tisza backers are in the former. 86% of the Fidesz voters are against Ukraine’s EU accession.
Tisza supporters see a threat in Donald Trump, while Fidesz voters believe his actions are in Hungary’s favour.
Minister Gulyás’s reaction
Concerning the Medián survey on the government’s EU policy and Hungary’s EU membership, Gulyás said the government “has a lot of criticism” of EU operations, but “there are significantly more arguments for Hungary’s membership than against”. “It is not the Hungarian prime minister but the EU’s own policies that make the community weak…” he said.
Read also:
- Orbán’s response to inflation is to fuel inflation: supermarket margins capped – read more HERE
- Shocking: Planned new law could see dual nationals forced out of Hungary! – details in THIS article
Lets see, it will be tough. Say of our Politicians what you will, they are very focused on power and skilled at clinging on to it!
Cannot wait for the usual Manna from Heaven. Nothing loosens the purse strings like an election. In addition, as Mr. Trump proved – with the right promises, you can tempt the proverbial turkeys to vote for Christmas (veterans, anyone? ).
I see huge Election bribes on the Horizon and huge Inflation a little bit later. poor poor Viktator!
In the last election there were apartments with hundreds of Fidesz supporters registered to vote having the same address. This will happen again in addition to Tisza marked ballots found in garbage dumps. Fidesz controls everything and they will use that control to cheat as much as they can. Support for Tisza needs to be so overwhelming that any falsification or fraud will be easily apparent. Fidesz knows how to fight dirty and they are quite filthy.
according *Grok
Medián poll (November 2024, reported on X on November 28, 2024): Among “decided voters” (voters who already know for sure who they will vote for), Tisza scores 47%, while Fidesz stands at 36%. This gives Tisza an 11-percentage-point lead, which is a remarkable shift in a country where Fidesz has dominated for years.
Republikon Institute poll (February 22-26, 2025): Here, Tisza scores 38% compared to 36% for Fidesz-KDNP, a difference of just 2 percentage points. This indicates a neck-and-neck race, with Tisza still slightly ahead, but the margin is smaller than in the Medián poll.
Earlier trends: In October 2024 (21 Research Center), Tisza reached 42% compared to 40% for Fidesz, and in September 2024 (via posts on X), Tisza stood at 39% against 43% for Fidesz. This shows that Tisza has steadily grown throughout 2024 and has even taken the lead in some polls since then.
Hungarians – just LOOK all around you.
Observe – what you are LIVING in ?
Expand you dialogue, broaden your vision and observations.
Is what you see, what you hear, what the “picture” you paint, the FUTURE of Hungary – does it Please and SATISFY you ?
Does the Future for You, professionally, your Family, your children, your Grand-children, lives of your friendships – your loved one’s – looking further into generations of Hungarians – what’s the PICTURE – you SEE ???
Separate – of the up-most of IMPORTANCE – your Emotions from your Conscience.
Start your PAINTING – on a “fresh” new canvas – that the last BRUSH stroke – standing back observing your WORK – it CAPTURES – what your BRAIN – dismissive of emotion & conscience – you UNINHIBITED – see now and the factual picture of the FUTURE of Hungary.
There is NO shortage of material – the TIME is RIGHT for Hungarians – to “clear there minds” – citizens, in cities, villages and hamlets, people Hungarians from “all stations in life” of ALL age groups – THINK – think long and HARD – what’s HUNGARY – the picture going to be REPRESENTATIVE of prior to the 2026 Spring National Elections and post, that time ?
WHO will be the artist, that signs his signature – on your PICTURE – your CANVAS of THOUGHT – your factual VISION – of Hungary ???
Dialogue – dismissive of Emotion – of past loyalty, of family TRADITION, examine and PUT into PRACTICE – in that picture – paint it on that CANVAS – what your GUT is telling you – void of CONSCIENCE – that you can make play your part – in SEEING the “shaping and the moulding” – of the FUTURE of Hungary.
Hungarians we are NOT the servants – the Masters being – the Orban led Fidesz Government, that have DELIVERED us a BLACK canvas – finished PAINTING.
The Orban – led Fidesz Government, appointed by us the people the citizens of Hungary – we are the MASTERS and THEY our SERVANTS, appointed to SERVE us.
Solidarity – if there is to be CHANGE – bringing DOWN the Orban led Fidesz Government – we FIGHT them on Truth is TRUTH.
WE FIGHT them on Fact accompanied supported by Truth is TRUTH.
Truth – when required – in our FIGHT to bring about the Orban led Government – history tells us – that TRUTH – just let it RIP – let it RUN – it CAN and WILL – DEFEND it-self.
Truth is TRUTH.
It’s inevitable that Fidesz is going to lose an election sooner or later. This is not Turkmenistan or Saddam’s Iraq, where the incumbent always “wins” with 99% of the vote. No matter how good a government is, in a democracy, especially a stable one, people get complacent, bored, tired, and cynical.
Magyar is a confected parvenu. Everything about his is phony. He stands for nothing except being anti-Orban everything and, as such, he is supported by the brainwashed wannabe “citizens of the world” as well as the globalist-socialist-fascist elites to whom Orban has been a giant thorn in the side.
Will gangs of third-world illegal aliens marauding the streets of Hungarian towns or gas and electric becoming unaffordable due to implementing “green” diktats by Brussels trigger buyer’s remorse? Maybe. But by then it will be too late. As we have seen in Western Europe, it takes a VERY short time to destroy a country: less than a single election cycle.
Perhaps Mr. Orbán should have BFF Mr. Trump visit Hungary, grand parade and all, and have him say nice things about Fidesz? Could be on to a winner!
So sad. To read this on the day that the struggle for sovereignty is commemorated. Because believe me, you will lose that with Tisza. They would rather make Hungary a province of the EU. But hey, in a democracy, a people gets the government it chooses.
Tisza voters, who are only voting for Magyar Péter because they want Fidesz out, are in for a rude awakening (if MP wins). This is the exact same scenario as it was in the UK. People in the UK just started to realise that they should have voted Reform, but it’s too late. Hungarians should vote for Mi Hazánk or the changes that Tisza will bring will be worse than Fidesz.
People only vote for Tisza, to get rid of Fidesz, not because Magyar Péter is competent or good or cares for the country or the people…
They are supported by the radical left wing globalists, Von der Leyen, Weber, etc…
Fidesz might be corrupt, as every politician on Earth. But having a radical left wing leadership is much worse than this. This whole pro-west, anti-east mindset is garbage. There is no reason to be in a bad relationship with Russia and China and half of the world, just because the EU said so. EU is a dictatorship, anti-european, anti-democratic, anti-east. Look at Germany and tell me that it didn’t go dowhill since Merkel. I rather have a thief as a leader, than a traitor murderer, who literally want to ruin european culture and let european citizens die by illegals. Tisza is clearly on the side of that nonsense mindset, obeying EU, licking their boots.
I think you haven’t seen a real dictatorship yet.