Hungary’s population shrinking drastically. How many of us will be there in 45 years?

Hungarians have been hearing warnings about population decline for over four decades, and the latest demographic data confirms it’s more than just talk.

Back in 1983, Hungary had over 10.7 million residents. By the 2023 census, that number had dropped to just 9.59 million. The trend is clear—and projections for the future don’t offer much optimism.

According to estimates by the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH), Hungary may have only 7.2 million people by 2070. Our World in Data offers a slightly rosier view, projecting that the number of Hungarians worldwide will remain above 8 million. Still, that’s a steep decline compared to just a few decades ago. The reasons behind the population drop are complex.

Why Is Europe’s Population Declining Alongside Hungary’s?

In more developed societies, personal life choices and individual aspirations often take precedence over traditional family and community values. Fewer people are choosing to have large families, and thanks to widespread access to modern contraception, many are purposefully delaying—or even forgoing—parenthood.

While falling birth rates are common in wealthier regions, other parts of the world are seeing the opposite trend. According to the United Nations and other global studies, the world population could exceed 10 billion by 2070. From today’s 8.16 billion, the global headcount may rise to 10.19 billion, peaking around 2086 at 10.29 billion. After that, a gradual decline is expected—but not everywhere.

Africa, for instance, is set to become the epicenter of a demographic boom. Its current population of 1.52 billion could more than double to 3.15 billion by 2070. By the turn of the century, half of all newborns may be born on that continent. North America is also projected to see growth, though at a much slower pace.

What Impact Will This Have on the World?

Population shifts come with both benefits and challenges. On a global scale, a smaller population could reduce environmental strain, ease the impacts of climate change, and improve food security. However, in developed nations like Hungary, shrinking and aging populations pose serious social and economic challenges, pressuring pension systems, healthcare, and labor markets.

Experts suggest that one key to addressing demographic imbalances—especially in developing regions—is improving the status of women. Expanding girls’ access to education and boosting gender equality could play a vital role in keeping population growth at sustainable levels.

The future presents a stark contrast: while countries like Hungary and other developed nations face dwindling populations, poorer regions across the globe are bracing for unprecedented booms. The real question is how we adapt—socially, economically, and environmentally—to these sweeping changes.

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