All Orbán’s promises and money distribution for nothing? Péter Magyar and his Tisza Party seem unstoppable
If elections were held this Sunday, according to the latest Republikon poll, the Tisza Party would win by a landslide, and the next Prime Minister would most likely be Péter Magyar. This is despite a flood of major government announcements and various cash transfers. All in vain?
- Question of the week: What to expect from the Orbán–Trump meeting in Washington? Click to vote!
Orbán cabinet makes unbelievable promises
Last week was dominated by the usual loud 23 October headcount battle, with the question being who managed to mobilise more people for their commemoration. Expert estimates suggest it was Tisza and Péter Magyar who won this, though photos show that Fidesz and Viktor Orbán’s march was by no means sparsely attended.
In the latter half of last week and early this week, major government announcements came one after another. On Monday, the details of the annual one-million-forint housing loan subsidy were revealed, showing that a wide range of people may have a significant portion (half to two-thirds) of their monthly loan covered by the state budget, funded by taxpayers. Yesterday, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán himself announced not only that the 13th-month pension, reinstated before the 2022 elections, will remain, but that pensioners will also receive a 14th-month pension – though the government did not specify the exact timing.
The 3% discounted housing loan launched in September (which notably pushed prices up) has already had a visible impact. Péter Tölgyessy, a former SZDSZ and later Fidesz MP, Orbán adviser and political analyst, predicts that we can expect major announcements from the Prime Minister almost every month until April – the most likely date for the 2026 parliamentary elections. Such extensive handouts would, for instance, be expected to swing elections in the United States, but there are no signs of this happening even now, at the end of October.
Péter Magyar’s lead is growing
Based on new poll numbers released yesterday by the Republikon Institute, not only does Tisza maintain its lead, but it has even increased it in certain segments. Some experts believe that, given the distance from the election, the figures representing the entire population are the most reliable. According to these, Tisza leads Fidesz by six percentage points, with a standing of 30–24, based on a representative public opinion poll conducted between 16 and 22 October with 1,000 respondents.
- Strike threat in Budapest: public service workers demand answers after the government withdraws billions more from the capital
Among party voters, the numbers shift to 43–35%, with Tisza improving by two percentage points. Finally, 44% of committed party voters would choose Tisza, while 34% would back Fidesz. Péter Magyar’s support grows by 2% here, despite no other parliamentary candidate besides him being known at present. By his own admission, if a more suitable candidate emerges, he does not insist on the premiership. However, yesterday he did name his prospective health minister: Zsolt Hegedűs, brother of former Jobbik supporter Lóránt Hegedűs Jr., an orthopaedic doctor practising both in England and Hungary.
After a summer lull, Tisza is rising once again
According to Telex, it seemed in summer that Péter Magyar’s momentum had stalled, but Tisza surged again throughout the autumn. Mi Hazánk — which recently won the mayoralty in Gyömrő — is hovering around the parliamentary threshold, and according to Republikon, so too are the Magyar Two-Tailed Dog Party and the post-Gyurcsány DK.
Republikon also found that uncertainty has grown this autumn, with more people inclined to stay away from voting.
Trends do not favour Orbán
Telex also plotted a trend line using results from the 21 Research Centre, IDEA, Medián, Nézőpont, Publicus, Republikon and Závecz polls, clearly showing that Tisza has led opinion polls roughly since last November, with its advantage growing almost month by month.
- Here’s when PM Viktor Orbán will meet Donald Trump
All this points to Hungary’s most exciting election in 20 years, which — despite the data — cannot be considered a foregone conclusion, given the ruling parties’ huge media and economic dominance and the probable political inexperience of future Tisza Party candidates.
Click for more news concerning the 2026 general elections in Hungary.
Big question – are we better off, thanks to our Politicians?
The elephant in the room are the healthcare system as well as rising cost of living / affordability (not for our Elites, obviously – different league). Promises to fix these matters – after being in power since 2010 – involve significant spending (housing subsidies, tax cuts, large family benefits) at a time when our economy is under strain (low growth, inflation).
Then there is the “us-versus-them” – it is always someone elses fault. Always. “Soros!”, “Brussels!”, “Biden!”, “The Special Military Operation!”. For which our Politicians require emergency powers, allowing the Orbán government to bypass Parliament – decrees take immediate effect and the Parliament’s role becomes largely symbolic . Policies (economic, security, migration) can be implemented instantly, without scrutiny. Fidesz can change administrative rules, restrict demonstrations, alter budgets, or reallocate funds without debate. Lastly, emergency powers make it easier to restrict gatherings, curb NGOs, and limit access to data. Whats there, not to like?
It WILL be a long, hard slog to remove Fidesz from power. They will do anything and everything in their power to cling on. They are the proverbial army on the high ground. If you are pro-change – get off your backside and do something. This election will go to the wire!
To add to Norbert’s very good summation when any government has been in power for so long and has concentrated power in its’ hands so thoroughly THERE ARE NO EXCUSES. They are responsible for how you live. Only fools will allow themselves to be deceived forever by government claims of outside enemies being responsible for problems in Hungary. In any democracy periodic change of government is a great necessity to prevent corruption from entrenching itself and to make parties compete harder to promote policies that improve your life so that they can earn your vote. The worst thing about the present government is the constant web of secrecy it operates in. Fidesz denies the public their right to know what these people who were elected to represent their interests are actually doing. In April Hungary will begin the massive task of house cleaning and it will take years.