Latest poll shows that Péter Magyar’s victory and a government change are unlikely

Péter Magyar, leader of the Tisza Party, announced yesterday afternoon and evening the candidates his party will field in individual constituencies, with just two exceptions. Magyar believes that “if they don’t mess it up,” they will take over the “responsibility of government” in the spring. However, the government-aligned Nézőpont Institute considers a government change improbable, predicting Viktor Orbán will win by a wide margin. This contradicts results from independent polling institutes.

The government’s welfare measures visible in the data

Independent pollsters have been tracking the Tisza Party’s lead over Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party for about a year now. The latest Medián poll found that the Tisza Party still has several hundred thousand more supporters, although this advantage has slightly diminished in recent months, mainly due to various government cash handout measures recently announced.

• Latest poll suggests PM Orbán may keep his seat until 2030

Calculations by G7 estimate that the government’s promises would cost between 1.7% and 2.12% of Hungary’s 2025 GDP. It’s no coincidence the Orbán cabinet plans a 5% GDP-proportional deficit even next year. After his hearing before the Parliamentary Economic Committee, Minister of Economy Márton Nagy told 24.hu that the election giveaways are covered by government bond and treasury bill issuances—that is, by increasing public debt.

The Tisza Party is hopeless, according to Nézőpont

Echoing Medián’s findings, the government-linked Nézőpont Institute also concluded that the government parties’ strengthening results from various cash transfers. According to the Hungarian News Agency, they pointed to major programmes such as the Otthon Start scheme, the 14th month pension, cuts to business taxes, extra payments for armed forces, and tax exemptions for mothers of three or more children. Additionally, Orbán’s international standing, marked by meetings with Trump and Putin, is also considered a factor in bolstering support.

Unlike before, Nézőpont hasn’t published monthly polling data since the Tisza Party’s rise. Their latest poll put the governing party at 46%, estimating 47% by November, while the Tisza Party stands at 40% among committed party voters. Nézőpont’s irregular timeline data always shows Fidesz leading, but no other polling institute concurs except those close to the government.

High turnout, hundreds of thousands more voters

Nézőpont attributes the Tisza Party’s failure to gain ground recently to a data leak scandal and its failure to set the agenda with a defining issue. Moreover, citing an index.hu article—which the Tisza Party immediately denied—the government began campaigning that if Tisza took power, it would impose significant 1300 billion forint austerity. According to Nézőpont, the Tisza Party cannot chip away at Fidesz’s massive voter base; it mostly consumes support from other opposition parties.

• Hungarian Tisza supporters mapped online – Fidesz politician visited one person’s home: Data leak scandal deepens

This government-affiliated institute forecasts a near-record turnout of 75%, and expects that in a hypothetical parliamentary election next Sunday, Fidesz would have at least 400,000 more voters. Interestingly, non-government-affiliated polls see this extra voter support with the Tisza Party instead. Also notable is that the Hungarian News Agency (MTI) never publishes non-government-aligned poll results but extensively analyses Nézőpont’s findings.

Experts argue the data concerning the entire population — that is, all Hungarian citizens of voting age — is far more insightful in the months before elections. In this respect, Nézőpont’s representative phone poll found Fidesz with 42% support, Tisza with 33%, and Mi Hazánk just surpassing the 7% threshold needed to enter parliament.

Péter Magyar confident he will win

Péter Magyar appears confident about the April election results. The Tisza Party leader insists they will win, provided they don’t slip up. He suggests that despite government efforts, societal resistance to Fidesz’s policies is so strong that victory in next April’s poll depends entirely on them.

Yesterday, Magyar announced his party’s individual parliamentary candidates. He said over 10,000 applied to stand. Three candidates were selected per constituency. In the first round, Tisza Party members shortlisted candidates, then the final two standing faced a vote among the constituency residents, finalising the list.

He highlighted that over 300,000 people voted in the second round of candidate nominations in just two and a half days. No constituency saw fewer than 1,000-1,200 votes, with some districts casting 7,000 votes, and one decided by a mere four ballots.

The countryside will decide, Péter Magyar aims to meet everyone

Hungary’s electoral system relies on individual constituencies: whoever wins a majority of these can confidently expect a parliamentary majority. Constituencies are drawn so that rural small-town voters’ voices carry more weight than those in large cities. This favours Fidesz, as the government is most popular among rural, financially disadvantaged residents and the elderly.

That’s why Péter Magyar has been visiting these small communities for months and plans to reach every one of them by next April.