Alarming: Hungary’s population inches closer to 9 million – here’s what’s happening exactly
Hungary’s population continues its steady decline, with November marking the second-lowest birth month in the country’s modern history (the lowest was April 2025). Preliminary data from the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH) shows that 5,582 children were born in November 2025, while 9,686 people passed away. This represents the second-lowest monthly birth total ever recorded in Hungary, following April’s historic low of 5,323.
The November figures highlight a persistent downward trend in births that began in July, with roughly 1,100 fewer children born than in the summer months. Compared to November 2024, births fell by 11%, while deaths decreased by 9.3%. As a result, natural population loss—where deaths exceed births—slowed slightly, falling from 4,427 last year to 4,104 in November.
Year-to-date trends
Between January and November, 65,913 children were born, down 7.4% from the same period in 2024—a decrease of 5,269 births. While birth numbers remained relatively flat in the middle of the year, the period from August to November saw an 8.4% drop compared to last year.
The total fertility rate in Hungary, which estimates the average number of children per woman, fell to 1.31 from 1.39 in 2024. Among women aged 15–49, there were 35.1 live births per 1,000, two per mille lower than the previous year.
Deaths between January and November totalled 112,722, a 2.6% decrease from 2024. Interestingly, mortality trends shifted mid-year: January to June saw 3.4% more deaths than the same period in 2024, but from July to November, deaths were 9.8% lower.
The scale of natural population loss
For the first eleven months of 2025, the natural population decline reached 46,809, roughly equivalent to depopulating an entire city the size of Dunaújváros. This figure is the second worst since the large population drop in 2021 due to COVID-19, 444.hu reports.
The year’s total births are expected to hover around 71,000—a stark contrast to the late 1990s and 2010s when annual births still exceeded 90,000. Current trends suggest that the number of births per 1,000 residents will fall below eight for the first time in modern records.
Population falls below 9.5 million
Hungary began the year with an official population of 9,539,502. Accounting for natural loss and international migration, the number of residents may now have dipped below 9.5 million. Last year, emigration reached a record high of over 41,000 Hungarians leaving the country. Meanwhile, roughly 29,000 returned, and about 10,000 foreign-born Hungarian citizens arrived, reducing net loss from migration to around 2,000. Foreign immigration added nearly 50,000, partially offset by 43,000 foreign departures, resulting in a net increase of about 4,000.
Subtracting the almost 47,000 natural population loss from the year’s starting figure and adding net migration gives an estimated population of 9,496,825—a clear sign that Hungary is edging closer to the 9 million mark. Analysts note that while migration once helped cushion population decline, recent trends show rising emigration and stagnant immigration.
The numbers underscore a demographic challenge that Hungary faces in the years ahead: declining births combined with persistent natural population loss and limited international migration.
We have a deafening silence at the moment from the pro-family side about the reason for the collapse in the number of births in the last 4 years. Not so long ago Hungary was being seen as the way forward. What we can see now is that much of the supposed effects of the pro-family policies were not as big as they suggested. For one thing, TFR is not a good measure of fertility since it can’t distinguish between women not having babies and women having babies when they’re older. Part of the reason for the low TFR in Hungary between 1990 and 2010 was simply that women were delaying having children. In 1990 the average age of a mother was 25. By 2010 it was 30. Since 2010 the average age has still been rising, but at a slower rate and the TFR recovered partly because of this. Anyway, with 71,000 births per year and a life expectancy of 80 and no net migration, the population will stabilise at 71,000 x 80 = 5.68 million. We don’t need any complex calculations to work that out.