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More than science fiction: could alien civilisations reveal themselves only on the brink of destruction?
For a long time now, the search for alien civilisations has been one of humanity’s most exciting scientific endeavours. While science-fiction films usually portray highly advanced and aggressive extraterrestrial species, a recent scientific idea suggests that the first genuine contact could happen in a very different way: aliens may be most likely to become detectable to us only when they are on the verge of extinction.
The idea of the existence of alien civilisations is by no means a product of the modern age. As early as ancient Greece, the philosopher Epicurus believed that the apparent infinity of the universe necessarily implied the existence of countless worlds, and that if matter is infinite, the possibility of life cannot be confined to a single planet. This idea has accompanied humanity for more than two thousand years, yet systematic scientific research has only been possible in the last century.
The fundamental problem is clear: we know of intelligent life with certainty in only one place – Earth. All our ideas about alien civilisations are therefore based on this single example, which inevitably distorts our expectations.
Why can classical assumptions be misleading?
Modern science and science fiction often assume that alien civilisations create technologies with enormous energy demands, far surpassing Earth’s capabilities by thousands of years, expand aggressively, and bring ever greater resources under their control. One such concept is the Dyson sphere, which would harness the entire energy output of a star. However, observations of the sky so far have revealed nothing to suggest that such monumental alien societies exist in our cosmic neighbourhood.
Alien civilisations and the eschatological hypothesis
According to IFLScience, astronomer David Kipping has proposed what he calls the eschatological hypothesis, offering a radically new perspective on extraterrestrial life. The core idea is that it is not stable, balanced societies that are easiest to detect, but those that are entering a phase of collapse.
Certain astronomical phenomena lend support to this line of thinking. The first discovered exoplanets, for example, orbited highly unusual objects – pulsars – even though we now know these are far from typical planetary systems. Striking, extreme phenomena are simply much easier to detect than what is average or ordinary.
People and the “scientists” are thinking about this all wrong. Everything written here is predicated on the assumption that advanced civilizations inexorably spread ever farther through the physical realm, i.e. start crisscrossing galaxies and colonizing planets.
That is not necessarily so. Unless it is possible to “bend” spacetime (in other words, unless there is another, fourth, dimension), space travel is impossible for all practical purposes due to the time dilation problem. Further, and more importantly, it is far likelier that advanced civilizations lead a digital and virtual existence in what is basically a microscopic form than that they are tear-assing through cosmos in rocket ships.
It’s worth recalling that people generally have no idea how enormous just our solar system is, let alone our galaxy alone (and there are 200 billion others!). Add to that the timescales measured in billions of years, as well as the 180,000 mile-per-second maximum speed of travel, and it should be obvious why there has been no civilization contact. An alien civilization happening upon Earth just at the right time (i.e. the few thousand years we’ve had civilizations) in the planet’s 5-billion-year-long history is nugatory. It’s like telling someone that a magical pixie will appear anywhere in the world, including the oceans, over the next seven days, and will be visible for exactly two seconds. What are the chances that you’d be just in the right place at the right time to spot that pixie?!?!
I strongly disagree with you.
Even if FTL is not developed, hibernation still remains a viable mode of transportation, even if the colonies have no contact with Earth. Even some Earth animals naturally have traits that enable to slow metabolism to an almost stop. I don’t think it is impossible to develop such inter-star travel. Having different human settlements around different stars makes the threat of extinction by random chance exceedingly low.
We know, that this is an extension of the self preservation instinct, so it seems obvious, that other civilizations also will try to spread, if they could. And we just proved they could.
The answer in the article to the Fermi paradox is the “Great Filter” theory, with the filter being placed ahead of us, and is widely believed to be a consistent solution.
I myself believe the “we are early” solution to the paradox, but the “Dark Forest” and “Great Filter” are all consistent and logical solutions.
That is a thoughtful post. Great point about the odds of anyone coming here in the short time we have a civilization.