Will Orbán win or lose his seat in April? People are wagering USD millions on the answer

You can bet on just about anything these days—including the outcome of Hungary’s 2026 general election. And markets, it turns out, have a knack for calling the shots with uncanny accuracy. Government-friendly think tanks insist Fidesz holds a commanding lead, but independent pollsters claim the Tisza Party has surged ahead since last November, nursing a lead of several hundred thousand voters that could even secure a supermajority.

Yes or No: the crypto betting game

Enter Polymarket, a decentralised prediction market where punters wager cryptocurrency on virtually any event—from election results and sporting triumphs to economic twists. No middlemen, total transparency (or so they claim): users simply buy “Yes” or “No” tokens on a given question. Elections? Ticks. Football finals? Covered. Stock market surprises? All in.

A Forbes piece from August quoted Hungarian-born dollar billionaire Tamás Péterffy predicting that platforms like Polymarket could eclipse stock exchanges within two decades. The site has already shone: investors nailed Donald Trump’s thumping 2024 victory—and even called individual state results—while pollsters foresaw a nail-biter. (It’s banned in the US, incidentally.)

Yet the crowd isn’t infallible. Punters badly misfired on Poland’s presidential election, prompting experts to urge caution. Some argue Polymarket’s hits are outnumbered by misses. Adding spice: Trump’s son joined its advisory board last year, injecting millions in funding.

Orbán or Magyar: where’s the smart money?

Fringe contenders like DK leader Klára Dobrev and Mi Hazánk’s László Toroczkai draw peanuts—victory odds under 1 per cent, per the market.

It’s a straight shoot-out between Viktor Orbán and Péter Magyar, with bets tilting 53-47 towards Magyar’s win (and Orbán’s defeat). On the specific question of Orbán losing, 55 per cent of the pot agrees. Total stakes? Already millions of dollars—and the bigger the pool, the sharper the collective wisdom, experts say. That’s why Polymarket aced Trump: a whopping $3.5 billion sloshed around.

Polymarket seems to mirror the polls’ wobble

The trendlines from pollsters hold firm here too. Last August, Magyar and Tisza led 60-40; that edge has since withered. Independent surveys echo the shift, blaming a barrage of government handouts ahead of the vote—weapons bonuses, 13th and 14th-month pensions, tax breaks, and home-creation loans. Furthermore, in weeks, Trump may come to Hungary in order to help his close friend secure the upcoming election.

Medián’s latest poll gives Tisza a 40-33 edge across the full population. The lead swells among decided voters and firm intenders, but experts dismiss that as misleading; with the April Hungarian general election this close, the whole electorate matters most. Political analyst Gábor Török deems Medián’s margin—if accurate—”unassailable”.