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PM Orbán in deep trouble, Tisza riding high? New polls show what people think of the past 4 years and what they’re afraid of
Fewer and fewer people trust pollsters these days, especially on party preferences. Yet ahead of a parliamentary election, the big question always looms: do people want the current Orbán government to carry on because it suits them personally (or what might replace it feels too terrifying), or does the majority see the economy as worse, demanding something fresh? On this front, Fidesz has no reason to kick back, according to the latest survey.
Hungarians are fed up with their lot
Republikon discovered that 75% of all respondents say they live worse than four years ago, Népszava wrote. Even so, the real puzzle is how many the government can convince; this stems not from its rule, but from outside forces (war, pandemic, economic crisis, weather, and so on). If every one of them voted against Fidesz, Orbán’s crew wouldn’t enjoy such high support across the whole population (a Median poll from early January puts the ruling parties at 33%).
Among Fidesz voters, 38% – a hefty third – reckon things are running worse than in 2022, yet they’d still back Orbán for another term. That means they don’t blame the government for the economic woes, or they weigh non-financial factors when casting their vote.
The current gloomy mood shines through in Republikon’s survey from 10-15 December, where just 8% of Hungarians deemed the economic situation plain good. No shock, then, that 93% of Tisza supporters view their living standards as dire, while 80% of undecideds feel worse off than in 2022. Republikon asks: how many believe a government change will improve their lot and vote that way on 12 April? Or perhaps they fear Hungary getting dragged into war, savable only by Viktor Orbán.
Massive divides among Hungarian voters
As the world watches whether Viktor Orbán – early bird of the global “patriot” flock – can cling to power, a huge age chasm has cracked open among voters. Orbán’s lot lead 49% among those over 65, but under-30s barely back the government at all – it’s 67-12 for Tisza. With an ageing society, seniors outnumber youth, and their turnout at elections is rock-solid compared to the young – a decade-long trend.
No wonder Péter Magyar campaigns on every Tisza youth, convincing their grandma or grandad to vote for change, and vice versa. Viktor Orbán lately railed in Miskolc that parents bear responsibility for where their kids cast votes in what he calls the fateful April parliamentary elections, reports Telex.
Education splits society too: the more educated, the more they lean Tisza – among degree-holders, it’s 53-25, while Fidesz tops 56% among those with just eight grades max. Same with settlements: the bigger the town, the stronger the Tisza pull. In Budapest, Tisza leads 53-25; in villages, Fidesz edges 39-37.
What are Hungarians scared of?
A Median study cited by 24.hu reveals Hungarians fear an EU exit more than war dragging in the country – child protection worries them more than Ukraine’s fallout in Europe. Plus, crumbling education and healthcare, alongside rampant corruption, rile them up even more.
Parliamentary elections are held on 12 April, with the new government – whoever wins – forming in May.
If you had to put money on the winner, the picture would be pretty clear, as you can also read in our article.
Of course, there is still a long way to go until the elections, and there may even be a surprise guest turning up to turbocharge Fidesz’s campaign.
The only way Hungary leaves the EU is, that Fidesz doesn’t get 50%, but has more votes then Tisza, so Orbán needs Mi Hazánk to govern the nation. Orbán is consistent on the issue.
It is however, quite ironic, that Tisza spreading the hoax, that Orbán will leave the EU, potentially reducing their vote share, has the potential to force Orbán to do exactly that.
So go on Tisza!
I and all the other Mi Hazánk voters welcome your lies as great assets.
Yes, Dear Márk, I pray for exactly this result – that Fidesz gets just enough votes to need Mi Hazánk to govern!
This would actually ensure that the next years would see some improvements for Hungary, without dangerous things occurring – like a Bruxelles-orchestrated Muslim invasion or the homosexualification of your children.
Thank you for supporting Toroczkai László.
He gives me hope for the future of all European peoples.
TISZA is on top, I hope Ukraine, the United Kingdom and France will help TISZA win the election.
Near 16 years continuing something worse, Hungary must say NO KINGS.
If Orban wins, Trump will become stronger, capture Greenland, and Putin will sit in Brussels and Kyiv. As both of true friends, Putin ate them on the lunch!
Thank you for your excellent English, Dear Volodymyr.
I am sorry what The West has done to your country. Millions of good Ukrainian men lost forever for the benefits of the bankers, in whose service CIA/MI6/Mossad overturned your legitimate government, 3 times, since 1991.
This last overthrow of your government was simply to get at Vladimir Putin.
But, yes, Vladimir will sit in Kiev if he wishes, or perhaps better said – if Europe continues the war.
Orbán will not decide any of this – even if he is in office until 2040.
It is simply up to Western European bankers to stop using countries on Russia’s border to try and destabilize Russia.
If they stop, Ukrainians can stop dying, and Ukrainians can return home, although now half of it will belong to the bankers – or, if you will, Blackrock- it now the largest landowner in Ukraine.
The government is responsible for how you live and they have failed miserably. Fidesz failure to comply with Rule Of Law obligations as an EU member has cost every Hungarian thousands of euros and will continue to cost Hungarians as long as they are in power. On top of that Fidesz is draining the wealth of Hungarians with their corruption and suppressing economic growth by forcing businesses to go into the hands of connected party men who exploit transactions for profit but have little acumen in running these companies. Hence, a pipe fitter is the biggest businessman in the country. I know someone who worked on one of Meszaros’ construction projects involving a demolition. There was a group of men there day after day for weeks with no work to do and no tools provided. It was all a paper business.