Foreign interference in Hungary’s election? Fidesz campaigns with Orbán alongside US and a dozen other politicians – analysis

There is a basic rule in Hungarian public policy life that has been honed over the past few years: every foreign political statement is interference in domestic affairs — except those that are not. Defining the latter category is a task the Fidesz communications team has taken upon itself, as flexibly as needed.

The formula is simple to apply: if Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian president, tells an Italian newspaper that in his view Orbán will lose the election, that is, of course, interference — it violates Hungary’s sovereignty, undermines the purity of the voters’ will, and proves that the Tisza Party is a puppet show of foreign interests. If, however, US Vice President J. D. Vance flies to Budapest a few weeks before the 12 April election to demonstrate, by his very presence, the Trump administration’s commitment to Viktor Orbán, that belongs to a different category. That is friendship, alliance, geopolitics. That is not interference, but an honour.

The backstory of “foreign interference”: the billboard campaign that reveals a lot

For nearly a decade now, we have watched government-funded billboard campaigns targeting the enemy of the moment. A year ago, the series of anti-Ukraine, anti-EU posters began. Zelenskyy’s stern face, Ursula von der Leyen’s self-satisfied smile, and Manfred Weber’s cheerful laugh were each placed in a large red X. The message was clear: these are the people who want to meddle in Hungary’s affairs; these are the people who must be rebuffed; these are the people against whom Viktor Orbán stands firm.

That communications architecture is still in place. When Zelenskyy let something slip at a March press conference — a line that could be interpreted as a threat directed at Orbán — Fidesz immediately turned it into a campaign issue, and with some justification, because the remark really was unacceptable. When the European Commission withholds EU funds, that is interference. When Brussels criticises, that is interference. When Ukraine does not reopen an oil pipeline, that is blackmail and interference.

A crucial element of this logic is that “interference” is not treated as a neutral, legal category. It is a rhetorical weapon. What matters is not whether someone truly tries to influence the conduct of an election, but in whose name they do it — and whether it suits the taste of those in power.

The guest list: the interference of the interferers

Before turning to the American vice president’s visit, it is worth pausing for a moment over the guest list of CPAC Hungary on 21 March — because it is, in itself, instructive if we want to understand which countries or parties are directly intervening in the election.

The event features speeches in person by Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš, former Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, Martin Helme, a leader of Estonia’s radical right, Tom Van Grieken, president of the Flemish Vlaams Belang, and, of course, Eva Vlaardingerbroek, the Dutch commentator who has by now become a regular — to name only the most prominent figures.

As a parenthetical note, it is worth mentioning that parts of the press once again will not be allowed into the event — even though, in CPAC’s own “Free Speech Rating” assessment in January, Hungary was ranked among the best in terms of freedom of speech. If an event whose central message is the defence of sovereignty and a professed commitment to open society and transparent democracy is serious about those claims, this would be the place to prove it by letting in accredited journalists without discrimination.

But back to the guest list. If Babiš, as the Czech prime minister, is expected to express clear support for Orbán and Fidesz, and Morawiecki is likely to do the same, then why is that not foreign interference? If any statement from Zelenskyy is interference — even when he never mentioned Péter Magyar — then Babiš’s open endorsement should also qualify as interference by Fidesz’s own logic.

What is more, CPAC spells out its own reasoning openly: “Brussels and its attachments have decided to settle accounts with the Hungarian right once and for all” — and against that backdrop, CPAC gathers foreign guests in order to show that “the strength of the right is not only overwhelming in Hungary.” Placed next to each other, these two sentences complete a perfect logical circle: the enemy’s interference is interference; our interference is a demonstration of strength.

Grand assembly of patriots

We must not overlook another Fidesz event either: the first Grand Assembly of Patriots will be held in Budapest on March 23, featuring such figures as Marine Le Pen, Matteo Salvini, Santiago Abascal, Herbert Kickl, and Geert Wilders. Given Fidesz’s reactions so far, these politicians are openly getting involved in the campaign to influence Hungarian voters.

Rubio, then Vance — and the exception that proves the rule