Even the company of Trump’s son “believes” that PM Orbán will lose power in April

Investors on Polymarket, a company partly owned by US President Donald Trump’s son, predict Orbán’s crushing defeat in April – how wrong could they be?

Polls are one thing; much can go awry there, from sample size to representativeness across social strata. Yet when investors wager money on an outcome, they are said to forecast more accurately, since they have skin in the game. So many believe, at least. The truth is more nuanced, though there were instances where punters with cash at stake have outdone the pollsters.

Prediction markets: officially banned in Hungary

We first reported on 18 January about the Polymarket platform – among its many offerings – where bets could be placed on who would become prime minister after the April elections. The trend then took a sharp turn: a tight race in mid-January swung decisively on Polymarket in favour of Péter Magyar, leader of the Tisza party.

The very next day, 19 January, the government issued an immediate decree blocking access to the online betting platform from Hungary. Workarounds persist, of course, so many still place wagers, while even more scrutinise what the investors are betting on. In theory, everyone risks only their own money – and loses it if they back the wrong horse.

Polymarket sees Magyar trouncing Orbán

Polymarket first gained prominence during the 2024 American presidential campaign, when it forecast a far larger lead for Trump than the pollsters – and proved right. Since then, Donald Trump Jr has joined its advisory board and invested in the firm; small wonder that in July 2025, the new White House incumbent halted every probe launched by the Biden administration.

Today, Polymarket gives Péter Magyar a 64% chance of forming a government after the April elections, against just 36% for Viktor Orbán. Some USD 50 million is in play on this market – equivalent to 16.7 billion forints at current rates – according to Zoltán Laky, writing in Válasz Online.

The contradictions of Polymarket

The platform is geo-blocked not only in Hungary but also in Poland, Portugal, Switzerland, Belgium, France and Singapore, where regulators class its activities as gambling rather than investment. Its operations raise ethical quandaries too: bets can be placed on wars or violence, and a large enough stake might incentivise the event itself (as when an Israeli journalist reporting on an Iranian missile strike faced threats aimed at silencing him).

Insider trading is a particular concern, with plentiful examples in recent months – not least the Venezuelan presidential heist, where someone turned $63,000 into $700,000 using three accounts registered just 48 hours before the attack, as if in possession of prior knowledge.

A single Polymarket bet can even become a self-fulfilling prophecy if sufficient funds are deployed at the right moment. Lawmakers and market players will need to address all this in due course, argues Mr Laky.

If you missed our previous articles concerning the 2026 general elections in Hungary:

• Assassination-style secret service plot targeted Tisza Party—but police refuse to investigate
• PM Orbán: Hungarian FM Szijjártó tapped; threads lead to Péter Magyar’s top diplomat