Putin may trigger a global food crisis with his latest move hitting Hungary hard despite “friendship”

Putin’s latest move may deliver a stinging blow to the global food system, as the world edges closer to a fresh spike in food-price inflation unseen for decades. This looming crisis may prompt another wave of migrants heading to Europe and the collapse of multiple governments. Putin will be the one who takes advantage of the situation, since the red button was pushed by President Trump in late February.

Hormuz closed – no fertiliser flow

Around a third of the world’s seaborne fertiliser trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a route that now faces an open‑ended closure as the Iran conflict rages. The narrow waterway is crucial not only for global oil and gas flows but also for the supply of ammonia and urea, the building blocks of modern nitrogen fertilisers. Without these inputs, crop yields could fall sharply, pushing food prices up to levels not seen since the pre‑industrial era.

In peacetime, Hormuz handles roughly 30 per cent of the world’s fertiliser commerce, including large volumes from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. The disruption has already bitten hard: since the start of the US‑led offensive in late February, the price of urea has surged by 40 per cent, climbing to about $670 per tonne. That is still far below the 2022 record of $1,000, but the outlook is grim.

Putin’s new weapon of choice

Enter Vladimir Putin, who has once again found a way to lash out at what he calls “hostile” states. Together, Russia and Belarus account for about 40 per cent of global potash exports, roughly 23 per cent of ammonia and 14–16 per cent of urea. Yesterday Moscow announced a halt to several nitrogen‑fertiliser exports from March 21 to at least April 21, effectively pulling those volumes from world markets when farmers in the northern hemisphere are preparing for spring planting.

The consequences will be felt with a lag. Confronted with shortage and sky‑high prices, growers may reduce seed wheat, barley and maize planting or even leave fields fallow. Yields will fall, and those that do survive cultivation will often be of lower quality. Within a few months, supermarket shelves will reflect that reality in the form of higher, and more volatile, food prices.

Europe’s dependence on Russian fertilisers

The European Union is especially exposed. In 2025, some 22% of the bloc’s fertiliser imports came from Russia, with Poland, the Baltic states and Bulgaria among the heaviest buyers. Russian producers have long undercut European rivals with low prices, while German plants, heavily reliant on cheap Russian gas, have become uneconomical to run without it. It is no accident that sanctions on Russian fertilisers have been diluted or quietly lifted.

Farmers across western Europe now face a bleak calculus: if they somehow secure fertiliser at all, they will struggle to pass on the extra cost, unlike 2022, when rising grain prices shielded them from higher input bills. Many told Euronews they do not expect meaningful state support this time.

Hunger and migration in the global South

The knock‑on effects will be even more severe in Africa and parts of Asia. Countries including Nigeria, Ghana and Ethiopia, which rely heavily on Russian fertiliser imports, now face a sudden and dangerous shortfall. The risk of hunger, social unrest and mass migration rises sharply, especially where soils are already depleted and farming methods precarious.

According to a recent World Food Programme study, cited by the Centre for European Policy Analysis, some 45 million people may soon be on the brink of starvation: 28 million in Africa, 9 million in Asia and roughly 5 million in the Middle East. In this context, Russia may yet cast itself as the rescuer of the “global South,” supplying fertiliser to friendly states while Europe condemns it as a pariah over the war in Ukraine.

The geopolitics of food and gas

If the United States’ campaign in Iran drags on, the world could become heavily dependent on Russia’s vast reserves of raw materials and energy. For nitrogen‑based fertilisers, roughly 80% of production costs are tied to natural gas prices, and Russia dominates both. That gives Moscow the capacity to feed its own farms and those of favoured partners while the rest of the world scrapes for scraps.

Among those partners are heavyweight agricultural economies such as Brazil and India. Seen through that lens, Putin may transform himself from a condemned invader into a reluctant lifeline for much of the developing world, even as European capitals remain unswervingly hostile to his regime.

If you missed our previous articles concerning Trump’s Iran war:

• War in Iran, trouble at home: Hungary’s economy faces pressure
• Plane ticket prices soar due to Iran war: how does this affect travellers from Hungary and Wizz Air?