Latest poll shows Péter Magyar could have 900,000 more voters – what this means for Orbán

The 21 Research Centre polled a representative sample of 1,500 people by telephone between 23 and 28 March, uncovering a staggering advantage for Tisza. Medián had detected something similar previously, though the results were met with scepticism by some. Could Péter Magyar’s camp be on the cusp of a near two-thirds victory?

Does Péter Magyar have 900,000 more voters than Orbán?

According to Telex, the gap between Tisza and Fidesz has widened further in favour of the former. Their latest survey shows Magyar’s party leading by 16 points among those able to choose a party, and by 19 points among firm party-choosing voters. With less than two weeks until the election, these figures among committed voters matter more than those from the general population (40-28).

On this basis, Magyar boasts 900,000 more supporters than Viktor Orbán, a result that would have seemed inconceivable even a few months ago. The 21 Research Centre’s seat calculator suggests such an outcome could deliver Tisza a two-thirds majority: 134 seats for Magyar’s alliance, 60 for Fidesz, 5 for Mi Hazánk, and a compensatory ethnic minority seat for the Roma national self-government representative. The Democratic Coalition and the Hungarian Two-tailed Dog Party, meanwhile, stand at a mere 1% each in the latest poll, with no chance of parliamentary entry.

Medián measured much the same: mere coincidence?

The institute notes that Fidesz support has not declined; rather, Tisza’s has surged, as Magyar’s team has successfully wooed the undecided in recent months. This trend is clear in Telex’s published graph: Tisza climbs steadily, Fidesz stagnates, while the DK and MKKP have flatlined in the polls.

Medián’s survey, released last week, found a 16-point Tisza lead in the full population, 20 points among those able to select a party, and 23 points among committed voters.

Gábor Török, one of Hungary’s most respected and precise political analysts, argues that two institutes which nailed the last election’s results cannot both be so wrong.

If true, Viktor Orbán has mere weeks left in office. After 16 years, Fidesz would fall to Tisza, which would furnish Hungary’s next prime minister.

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