4 days to Hungary’s election: two fresh polls point to a tight finish

With Hungary voting on Sunday, 12 April 2026, two of the latest survey releases suggest a competitive end to the campaign — with Péter Magyar’s Tisza Party showing an advantage in one poll, while a separate measurement of prime-ministerial suitability puts Magyar narrowly ahead of Viktor Orbán.

Iránytű: Tisza leads across multiple voter groups

A new poll by the Iránytű Institute, published by Népszava, places Tisza at 41% and the governing Fidesz–KDNP at 34% among the total adult population. Smaller parties were measured far behind: Mi Hazánk and the Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party at 3%–3%, while the Democratic Coalition (DK) was listed at 1%.

The same survey indicates an even stronger Tisza lead among more engaged segments:

• Among those who can name a party preference, Tisza leads 50–41.
• Among certain voters, the advantage is 51–40.

One of the most consequential figures in the poll is the share of people who did not disclose a party choice: 18% were either undecided or did not answer — a bloc that can still swing outcomes in a close race.

Mood indicators: more want change, pessimism outweighs optimism

Beyond party preference, the Iránytű poll also reports a strongly anti-incumbent mood. According to the published figures, 62% say Hungary is heading in the wrong direction, while 31% are optimistic.

On government continuity, the numbers tilt toward change: 54% said they would like the Fidesz government to leave, while 38% would prefer it to stay.

The survey also asked respondents who they think will win, regardless of personal sympathy. The published results show 43% expecting a Tisza victory and 40% expecting Fidesz to win, with 15% unsure.

Methodology: what we know about the Iránytű poll

Iránytű’s poll was conducted via telephone interviews with 1,000 people between 31 March and 4 April, with a reported margin of error of up to ±3.1 percentage points (for a 50% result, at 95% confidence).

Republikon: Magyar seen as slightly more suitable PM than Orbán

A separate poll from the Republikon Institute, reported by 24.hu, did not measure party preference but asked which leader respondents consider more suitable for the position of prime minister.

In this question, 41% chose Péter Magyar, while 38% chose Viktor Orbán.

However, the data also suggests different levels of conviction. Among all respondents, 34% said it was clear Orbán is more suitable, while 24% said the same about Magyar — a sign that Orbán’s supporters may be more certain in their choice even if the overall preference is close.

What the Republikon breakdown says about voter blocs

The party-based splits are also notable:

• Among Fidesz voters, 93% said Orbán is clearly suitable and 6% said rather suitable.
• Within the Tisza camp, 61% said Magyar is clearly suitable and 29% said rather suitable — suggesting a more mixed coalition.
• Among undecided voters, 60% could not answer; but those who did leaned toward Magyar (20%) over Orbán (10%).

Republikon’s interpretation, as reported, is that the Tisza electorate appears more heterogeneous, while Fidesz support is tightly linked to Orbán personally.

If you missed it yesterday: US VP JD Vance sends surprising message to Péter Magyar about what happens if PM Orbán loses the election – video

The key caveat: polls measure different things, and turnout may decide

Taken together, the two releases point in the same direction — a race in which Tisza’s momentum and anti-incumbent sentiment look substantial, but where voter turnout and late mobilisation could still prove decisive. At this stage, the most unpredictable variable remains the sizeable pool of people who either won’t state a preference or are hard to mobilise.

For foreign readers: who’s who, and why Hungary’s election can be hard to predict

In Hungary, a 199-member parliament is elected, and at least 100 seats are required to form a government. Although opinion polls provide a snapshot of public opinion, the results can be influenced by voter turnout, the distribution of votes, and the specific rules of the electoral system.

Viktor Orbán has led Hungary as prime minister for 16 consecutive years and remains a central figure in the ruling Fidesz–KDNP alliance. Péter Magyar, who once belonged to the ruling camp, is now the leader of the Tisza party, which has emerged as the strongest challenger in this election cycle. The international press considers the vote one of the most important events of the year in the EU, both in terms of Hungary’s domestic political trajectory and its European relations. Orbán persists in his constant confrontation with the EU, while Magyar promises better relations if he comes to power.

The election is extremely close: will Fidesz, poised for its fourth victory, come out on top, or will it be the Tisza Party, which has existed for barely two years? Follow the latest election news here.

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