“Even with our support, they couldn’t do anything”: Kremlin reportedly prepares for possible Orbán defeat

The Kremlin is reportedly no longer treating Viktor Orbán’s re-election as a certainty, with sources close to Russia’s presidential administration telling independent Russian outlet Meduza that Moscow is now actively preparing for the possibility of a Fidesz defeat in Sunday’s Hungarian parliamentary election.

According to the report, early expectations inside the Kremlin were that Orbán’s party could still recover and win the national party-list vote. When that became less likely, Russian strategists reportedly shifted their hopes to victories in Hungary’s single-member constituencies. Now, however, even that fallback scenario is no longer seen as guaranteed.

One source cited by Meduza said Moscow now accepts that even district-level success may fail to materialise.

This aligns with the latest independent polling trends, which continue to show Péter Magyar’s Tisza party ahead of Fidesz just days before the vote. Reuters reported that Tisza still leads among decided voters, reinforcing the sense that Orbán is facing the most serious threat to his 16-year rule.

Russian media already has a post-election narrative ready

One of the most politically explosive claims in the Meduza report is that state-controlled Russian media has already prepared a fallback explanation if Orbán loses.

According to both a Kremlin-linked strategist and a source familiar with the thinking in Moscow, a Fidesz defeat would likely be framed by Russian propaganda channels as an EU-orchestrated “colour revolution” rather than a straightforward democratic defeat.

The same sources claimed that while Orbán’s campaign is not directly managed from Vladimir Putin’s presidential office, it has allegedly received “assistance” with its social media operations, particularly around messaging and online image-building.

Western media outlets, including the Financial Times and The Washington Post, have previously reported on alleged Russian efforts to boost Orbán’s ratings through online disinformation and attacks on Tisza, although both the Kremlin and the Russian embassy in Budapest have denied any interference.

Putin may blame Orbán if Fidesz loses

Perhaps the most remarkable detail from the Meduza report is the suggestion that Putin himself would hold Orbán and his inner circle responsible for a loss.

One source summarised the mood bluntly:

“Even with our support, they couldn’t do anything.”

In recent years, Orbán has widely been viewed as one of Putin’s most important allies inside the European Union, particularly on sanctions, Ukraine policy and institutional veto power.

Thus, a defeat on Sunday would not only transform Hungary’s domestic politics, but could also represent a major geopolitical setback for the Kremlin’s influence in Europe.

Why this matters for Hungary’s election in 2 days

With the election now just two days away, the Meduza claims are likely to intensify the already grave debate over foreign influence in Hungary’s campaign.

The context makes the story especially significant: several recent projections suggest Tisza could even be heading toward a constitutional two-thirds majority, potentially ending the Orbán era in the most dramatic political shift since 2010. Reuters this week cited a Medián projection putting Tisza well above the supermajority threshold.