Final polls before Hungary’s election show various results

Hungary heads into Sunday’s parliamentary election with polling agencies offering starkly different pictures of what may happen. Independent research institutes show growing momentum for the opposition Tisza Party, while government-aligned pollsters maintain that support for the ruling Fidesz remains stable and secure.

According to the latest seat projection from Átlátszó’s Választási Monitor (Election Monitor), if independent institutes are accurate, the key question may not be whether Tisza wins – but how large its victory will be. A two-thirds constitutional majority remains possible if traditionally pro-government constituencies swing.

Independent polls suggest strong Tisza lead a day before elections

Recent data from the Medián research institute indicates a steady rise in Tisza’s support. Their 8 April survey showed a two-point increase in the party’s backing among the entire population, while Fidesz stagnated. Among committed voters, this could translate into a significant advantage. Medián’s seat projection points to a potential two-thirds majority, with 141 parliamentary seats – a result that would surpass Fidesz’s previous victories in scale.

Further independent polling from 21 Kutatóközpont also anticipates a two-thirds Tisza majority, while new research by IDEA Intézet and Iránytű Intézet points to a clear but smaller majority.

Government-aligned surveys paint a very different picture

By contrast, research from organisations such as Nézőpont Intézet, the Alapjogokért Központ, and XXI. Század Intézet shows little movement in party support. Their results suggest Fidesz retains a steady advantage of around five to eight percentage points. However, even these institutes acknowledge that Fidesz could lose several major constituencies, including in cities such as Debrecen, Szolnok, and Győr.

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Key constituencies could decide the outcome

The Election Monitor’s model now shows the average of all polling data narrowly favouring Tisza, making a slim parliamentary majority the most likely scenario. The risk of a deadlocked three-party parliament has also decreased, partly because support for the far-right Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (Our Homeland Movement) appears less secure.

The projection highlights that close contests in battleground districts – notably in Kecskemét – could determine the parliamentary balance. Campaign visits by both Orbán Viktor and Magyar Péter underline the importance of these constituencies.

If independent polls prove accurate, Tisza could even approach a constitutional majority, though that would require victories in historically pro-Fidesz districts such as Szigetvár, Hatvan, and Mezőkövesd.