Hungary heads into Sunday’s parliamentary election with polling agencies offering starkly different pictures of what may happen. Independent research institutes show growing momentum for the opposition Tisza Party, while government-aligned pollsters maintain that support for the ruling Fidesz remains stable and secure.
According to the latest seat projection from Átlátszó’s Választási Monitor (Election Monitor), if independent institutes are accurate, the key question may not be whether Tisza wins – but how large its victory will be. A two-thirds constitutional majority remains possible if traditionally pro-government constituencies swing.
Independent polls suggest strong Tisza lead a day before elections
Recent data from the Medián research institute indicates a steady rise in Tisza’s support. Their 8 April survey showed a two-point increase in the party’s backing among the entire population, while Fidesz stagnated. Among committed voters, this could translate into a significant advantage. Medián’s seat projection points to a potential two-thirds majority, with 141 parliamentary seats – a result that would surpass Fidesz’s previous victories in scale.
Further independent polling from 21 Kutatóközpont also anticipates a two-thirds Tisza majority, while new research by IDEA Intézet and Iránytű Intézet points to a clear but smaller majority.
Government-aligned surveys paint a very different picture
By contrast, research from organisations such as Nézőpont Intézet, the Alapjogokért Központ, and XXI. Század Intézet shows little movement in party support. Their results suggest Fidesz retains a steady advantage of around five to eight percentage points. However, even these institutes acknowledge that Fidesz could lose several major constituencies, including in cities such as Debrecen, Szolnok, and Győr.
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Key constituencies could decide the outcome
The Election Monitor’s model now shows the average of all polling data narrowly favouring Tisza, making a slim parliamentary majority the most likely scenario. The risk of a deadlocked three-party parliament has also decreased, partly because support for the far-right Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (Our Homeland Movement) appears less secure.
The projection highlights that close contests in battleground districts – notably in Kecskemét – could determine the parliamentary balance. Campaign visits by both Orbán Viktor and Magyar Péter underline the importance of these constituencies.
If independent polls prove accurate, Tisza could even approach a constitutional majority, though that would require victories in historically pro-Fidesz districts such as Szigetvár, Hatvan, and Mezőkövesd.
Hungary is like a crazy inverse universe of Canada. Canadians absolutely despise Trump who has made threats to take over our country regarding it as a piece of land that should be an extension of the US much as Putin regards Ukraine. An endorsement of any Canadian political leader by Trump is a kiss of death for their prospects so for us the JD Vance spectacle was lunatic. There is tremendous popular support for Ukraine in Canada and Zelensky is regarded as a hero whenever he visits. We have a tolerant attitude to the LGBTQ community and regard attacks against it as Neanderthal in nature. No government in Canada would dare do what Fidesz has done. Canadians have been paying attention to the corruption and anti-Western actions of the Hungarian government and judging by the comments section in the Globe and Mail, which is regarded as the most professional daily media publication, Canadians as a result have developed a negative view of Hungary. Hopefully all this will change with the coming change of government in Hungary.
‘Canadians absolutely despise Trump who has made threats to take over our country regarding it as a piece of land that should be an extension of the US much as Putin regards Ukraine.’
You are talking about a majority of Canadians, Dear Larry, who, like you, live in the eastern part of the country.
The Western Canadians, who are soon to be my fellow countrymen, do not share your views.
Alberta is considered the most right leaning province in Western Canada and a poll done in March 2025 showed only 12% or respondents having a favourable view of Donald Trump. You are completely wrong. He is universally despised in Canada but for a small minority of right-wing nut-bars.
Did you forget or just did not know, that that Ukraine first attacked the east with all its war machinery in 2014, when the ethnically, culturally and linguistically russian Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics declared independence due to state (coup government) terror. Ukraine started the war, the People’s Republics finally asked Russia for help in 2022. Zelenskyi is not a hero, look at the corruption. How does the president’s salary buy million dollar jackets for his wife and tens of millions of vacation homes around the world?
Canada is in a bad place at the moment, once is was seen as a country of freedom and a population with a level of intellect higher that it’s neighbour the USA. Canada has now become an orwellian vassal of the deep state and it’s agendas. Thankfully no child in hungary tonight will be sexually mutated with the brainwashing of children from the transgender crap, Hungarian children are safe here under Fidesz. As for bowing to Zelensky maybe he likes the Cocaine in Canada, although I doubt we’ll ever see him riding a grisely bear.
Canada, Dear Kalman, is soon to be not, or, in other words, the Conservative White Rural part of it will soon be connected to my country.
That said, our country is extremely likely to go through a reorganization soon, from which numerous new countries will appear.
Kalman no political party or polician in Canada could ever get away with what Pedofidesz has done in Hungary protecting connected pedophiles to Hungary’s everlasting shame. We protect children in Canada but they are not protected in Hungary. What has gone on in orphanages in Hungary is so disgusting I don’t know how Fidesz supporters can live with themselves by sweeping it under the rug. Rest assured everyone that Tisza is going to clean up this pile of Fidesz feces that stains the nation with worst hideous odor.
All you have to do is look at who resigned in Hungary – Novak and Varga. We all know why they resigned. What a disgusting Pedofidesz government exists here. Shame.
The Hungarian pollsters, who are, and, indeed, have been suggesting that Tisza will win a huge majority, have a history of being 10-20 off the final result.
But, hey : even a broken clock can seem right 2 times a day.