The Hungarian forint’s best month in years ends on a sour note

Hungary’s national currency, the Hungarian forint, started the last day of April on the back foot, weakening against all major currencies in early Thursday trading compared to Wednesday afternoon levels. At 6 a.m., the euro was quoted at 366.30 forints — up from 365.21 the previous evening — while the dollar rose to 314.03 forints from 312.35, and the Swiss franc climbed to 396.69 from 395.41.

The brief morning dip, however, barely puts a dent in what has been a remarkable month for Hungary’s currency. Over the course of April, the forint gained 4.6% against the euro and the Swiss franc, and 5.5% against the US dollar — a performance that stands out even by regional emerging-market standards.

What drove the rally?

For readers unfamiliar with the forint’s chronic vulnerabilities, some context helps. Hungary is a small, open economy heavily dependent on energy imports and EU transfers, which makes its currency unusually sensitive to political and geopolitical signals. The forint has historically been one of the more volatile currencies in Central Europe, often moving sharply on news that would barely register elsewhere.

April delivered an unusually generous set of tailwinds. The month opened with optimism around a potential ceasefire in the Middle East, which sent energy prices sharply lower — a direct benefit for Hungary, which spends a significant share of its import bill on gas and oil. By early April, the euro had already fallen toward the 374-forint range, a level not seen since the summer of 2023.

The bigger jolt came mid-month. Hungary’s parliamentary election on 13 April produced a decisive result: Péter Magyar’s Tisza Party won a supermajority, ending over a decade of Viktor Orbán’s rule. International markets responded immediately and warmly. The euro dropped nearly nine Hungarian forints in a single morning, as investors priced in the prospect of a more predictable, EU-aligned government — and, crucially, the eventual release of billions of euros in frozen EU funds that Brussels had withheld from Hungary over rule-of-law concerns.

Why does the election matter for the currency?

For years, the Hungarian forint‘s weakness was partly a political discount: foreign investors demanded a premium to hold Hungarian assets, given uncertainty over the country’s relationship with the EU, its fiscal transparency, and its unpredictable regulatory environment. A government change that credibly signals a return to EU norms can, in theory, gradually erase that discount — and April’s rally suggests markets believe, at least provisionally, that such a shift is underway.

What happens next?

The morning weakness on the final day of April is a reminder that the forint’s gains are not yet locked in. Several risks remain. The new government will need to translate political goodwill into concrete policy steps — particularly on unlocking EU cohesion funds — before markets fully revise their long-term view of the currency. Any delay or complication in that process could trigger a partial reversal.

Externally, the European Central Bank‘s next rate decisions, the trajectory of the US dollar, and continued geopolitical uncertainty all have the potential to move the forint independently of anything Hungary does domestically.

For now, though, April 2026 will be remembered as the month the forint came back to life — driven by the rare combination of falling energy prices, a historic election result, and a market willing to give Hungary the benefit of the doubt. Whether May confirms that verdict or complicates it remains to be seen.

FAQ – The Hungarian forint