Former Hungarian PM: The Orbán government is planning for a long-term exit from the EU

Hungary’s potential withdrawal from the European Union is part of the Orbán government’s long-term strategy, according to former prime minister Gordon Bajnai. Speaking in an interview with HVG, Bajnai said that while the ruling party currently lacks both the public support and the economic roadmap needed for such a move, the political direction clearly points towards an eventual exit.

Bajnai: Orbán aims to exploit EU membership first

According to Bajnai, the government is preparing to lead Hungary out of the EU “at a suitable moment”. Until then, it is seeking to extract as much benefit as possible from EU membership while simultaneously weakening the Union’s institutional framework. He added that although criticism of the EU can be justified and necessary, it must always be accompanied by a crucial question: what would happen to Hungary outside the EU?

In Bajnai’s view, Hungary’s national interests can be far more effectively represented within European frameworks than beyond them.

He sees the NER as politically successful

Bajnai described the System of National Cooperation (NER) as politically successful, pointing out that Fidesz has won four consecutive elections. However, he stressed that this success has come “at the cost of pushing the country into long-term decline”, as quoted by 444.hu.

Based on objective indicators, Bajnai believes Hungary has underperformed relative to its potential. Many EU countries that joined at the same time as Hungary (or even later) have caught up with or overtaken it in terms of economic growth, corruption indicators and the absorption of EU funds.

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The system is not sustainable within the EU

Bajnai emphasised that in these countries, sovereignty has not diminished, migration problems have not worsened, and in many cases, emigration has reversed. Economic growth has been faster, and state institutions function more efficiently.

All this, he argued, suggests that the system built under the NER is not sustainable in the long run within the European Union, which is why the government may be factoring in a future exit.

The stakes are far higher than in a normal democracy

Speaking about the upcoming elections, Bajnai said the stakes for the NER elite are far higher than in a “normal democracy”. He claimed that in Hungary, a single ruling party has effectively captured state institutions and large parts of the economy. As a result, an electoral defeat would not merely mean a change of government, but a change of regime.

For those who have accumulated significant wealth within this highly centralised system, such a shift would pose serious risks. Consequently, both the political struggle and the period following the elections could be extremely intense.

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Two opposing forces are needed for change

Bajnai also addressed the opposition, saying that defeating Fidesz in individual constituencies is only possible if two clear political forces face each other. For social reconciliation, he believes it is essential to confront past decisions, clarify questions of responsibility, and then formulate a shared national foundation.

While he acknowledged that rational, fact-based politics is currently at a disadvantage compared to divisive populism, Bajnai argued that populism is ultimately doomed to fail. In his view, Hungary too may eventually enter a more sober and clear-headed political era.