Betting offices say that if another state follows in the footsteps of Great Britain, it will certainly not be Hungary.
Ever since Brexit, the possibility to exit the European Community has become a reality. Whatever the consequences, politicians initiated talks in several countries. Lately, Hungary has been the loudest.
Representatives of the government mentioned on several occasions that it might be beneficial for the country to leave the EU. Or, they highlighted the other side: what disadvantages Hungary would suffer if it stayed a member.
He actually said these words over 20 years ago, in 1999, when the country was not a member yet. He referred to the hypothetical situation of Hungarians voting with NO in 2003.
Pro-governmental political scientist Tamás Fritz wrote in Magyar Nemzet that “…the time has come, now in July 2021, to seriously consider the possibility of our withdrawal from a union of states with a thousand bleeding wounds, showing imperial symptoms, and treating Eastern and Central European countries incredibly arrogantly.”
As telex.hu writes, despite these somewhat harsh words,
international bookmakers see the situation differently, with significantly less chance of Hungary leaving.
In their opinion, the odds of this happening are only the 6th highest among the rest of the members. They need more time to consider the actual chance of this happening. Moreover, it is not even Poland that leads their list, as many would have imagined.
Currently, you can bet at five registered offices on European politics, more precisely on which country or countries would follow Britain, and who would be the quickest.
It may be surprising, but all offices put the biggest odds on Italy.
They believe that the country has a 1/3 chance to become fully sovereign again – even if the Treaty of Rome creating the European Economic Community was signed in Rome in 1957, with Italy being a founding state. Moreover, the current Prime Minister, Mario Draghi, is the former president of the European Central Bank. On the other hand, the coalition forming the government has three Eurosceptic parties involved.
The list of potential “exiters” is the following: Greece (1/6), France (1/7), the Netherlands, and the Czech Republic (1/12).
Hungary and Poland follow significantly behind them, with the probability of one in fourteen.
What is your guess? Who will be the next one to leave the Community?
Source: telex.hu, oddschecker.com, dailynewshungary.com