A large-scale independent exit poll conducted among Hungarians voting abroad suggests an overwhelming victory for the Tisza Party among diaspora voters, raising the possibility of last-minute changes in several closely contested constituencies.
Independent civic initiative delivers rare insight into overseas voting
The survey was carried out by the Magyar Vándor association, a Munich-based civic group of Hungarians living abroad. More than 60 volunteers collected responses from 3,905 voters across 10 countries on election day, targeting polling stations with a single exit point to ensure consistency.
The initiative, described as politically independent, aimed to make the participation and perspectives of Hungarians abroad more visible. While the results are not official, they provide a detailed snapshot of voting patterns among those casting ballots at foreign missions.
Tisza dominates among voters abroad
According to the exit poll:
- Party list votes:
- Tisza: 80%
- Fidesz: 7%
- Mi Hazánk: 2%
- Two-Tailed Dog Party: 1%
- DK: 0%
- Individual candidates:
- Tisza: 88%
- Fidesz: 7%
- Mi Hazánk: 2%
- Others: negligible support
These figures show a striking level of support for Tisza among Hungarians voting abroad, far exceeding domestic averages.
Limited impact on national list results, but key in tight races
Despite the dramatic margins, the overall impact on national party-list results is expected to be minimal. Around 85,000 votes were cast abroad, compared to nearly 6 million domestic list votes already counted.
However, the situation is very different in individual constituencies, where narrow margins mean that diaspora and transferred votes (from voters registered away from their home districts) could prove decisive.
Four constituencies flipped
The following constituencies were projected to be able to flip, and they did so:
- Paks: Fidesz candidate János Süli led by just 138 votes, but incoming diaspora votes favoured Tisza challenger Tamás Cseh.
- Nyírbátor: A 174-vote Fidesz lead was overturned.
- Dombóvár: One of the most unpredictable races, with a 422-vote gap before counting the remaining ballots.
- Zala County 2: Underwent a full recount due to a margin under 100 votes, with the Tisza candidate emerging as the winner.
Final results still uncertain as counting continues
Votes cast abroad and by transferred voters are expected to be counted by Saturday evening, although recounts in tightly contested districts could delay final results further.
Currently, the parliamentary seat distribution stands at:
- Tisza: 140 seats
- Fidesz: 53 seats
- Mi Hazánk: 6 seats
Analysts suggest that even if Tisza gains additional constituencies, adjustments in compensation votes could offset some of those gains, potentially resulting in only a marginal net change in total seats.
Why diaspora voting matters
The Magyar Vándor initiative shows not only voting preferences but also the broader importance of diaspora participation in Hungary’s democratic process. By collecting anonymous, aggregated data, the project aims to provide a clearer picture of how Hungarians abroad engage with national elections.
UPDATE: 141 seats for Tisza
At 1 PM on Saturday, Tisza is already holding 141 seats at 99.66% of the votes counted.
If you missed it: Tisza Party sweeps new county, takes another seat away from Fidesz
No matter what party people vote on from abroad, it should be banned to vote outside of Hungary. If you leave or you are second, third ect generation Hungarian (most never visited Hungary) living abroad you loose voting rights. The present system is insane.
“Diaspora voters overwhelmingly back Tisza: massive exit poll conducted.’
I could have told you that. They left Hungary because they wanted Hungary to stop being Hungary and be like France or Britain.
Another reason is that, when you meet a Hungarian in the disUnited States they are usually Leftists who are religious about their New England Yankee Globalist views.
I think this was started by Orbán, Dear Géza – to allow Transylvanian Hungarians to vote.
Does that not make sense?
Does it also not make sense to accept the fact that a decisive number of Hungarians voted against the values that you and I share – an independent and traditionalist Hungary?
Contary to the voices here expressing that the opportunity to vote should be removed from the diaspora abroad, I’d like to point out the obvious problem with this, namely, that voters outside Hungary overwhelmingly voted for the Fidesz party list with significantly higher levels of support in evidence in previous election. If you remove the right of Hungarians abroad the right to vote, Fidesz would suffer a major blow to their electoral chances.
A mere 91k people registered for in-person voting at an overseas mission or consulate, while a record, this figure is not decisive in an election. By definition all these people retain an address in Hungary, therefore, if you stripped them of the opportunity to vote at an embassy or consulate abroad, the majority would return to Hungary and vote in-person at a polling station. There’s also no way of determining with certainty which of these voters have emigrated versus found themselves visiting a country temporarily on election day. This is due to the 2013 change in the rules around address cards; previously, if you left Hungary for longer than 6 months you were legally obliged to hand back your address card. Thereafter it was left up to citizens to decide if they had no plans to return to Hungary or if they had a loose intention to return at some point in the future. One could emigrate while still retaining a Hungarian address with no time limit.
Contrast this with the circa 490k people entitled to a postal vote as they don’t have a Hungarian address (the majority of whom have never even lived in Hungary). 84% of their votes were cast for Fidesz and if my memory serves me correctly, Fidesz gained up to 96% of postal votes in previous elections.
So no, restricting voting only to Hungarians living in Hungary isn’t going to help Fidesz, it will however hugely hinder them. If you strip out the party list votes from people that have never had a Hungarian address Fidesz will have lost about 330k votes which would reduce the number of their seats in Parliament by at least 5 in my estimation. The thumping Tisza victory was already clear once the majority of votes cast in Hungary were declared (with one urn left unsealed in each constituency in order to mix in votes transferred to another polling station and those cast at overseas missions prior to the final count). Hungarians IN Hungary won this election for Tisza, end of.
However, if Fidesz would like to encourage the new Tisza government to remove the right to vote from people that have never lived in Hungary (which wouldn’t be entirely unreasonable) then I’m sure they’d be happy to use their 2/3 majority and comply with this request.