Today, the European Commission published its third report on demographic transformation in the EU, highlighting both the challenges and the opportunities it presents for competitiveness, innovation, social cohesion and sustainable development if addressed early and effectively.

Europe’s population is set to shrink and age, creating challenges for the labour market, healthcare, care systems and public finances. But longer, healthier lives also offer opportunities to boost participation, innovation and growth. Through targeted policies on skills, care, housing and regional development, the EU is helping Member States mitigate the effects of demographic change.

European population declining, but living longer than ever

The report, drawn up by the Joint Research Centre, confirms that Europe’s population is currently at its peak; with 450.6 million people today, the EU’s population is projected to be around 445 million by 2050, and 398.8 million by 2100, representing an overall decrease of about 11.7%, to a level experienced in the 1970s.

At the same time, Europeans are living longer than ever before, with life expectancy at birth reaching 81.5 years in 2024, reflecting progress in healthcare, living standards and social conditions. By 2050, nearly one in three EU residents will be 65 or older – compared to one in five today, while life expectancy could exceed 90 years for women and 86 for men by 2100. A child born in the EU in 2023 could expect to live a life without major illness until 75.3 years.

These trends present significant challenges, from labour shortages and strained public budgets, to pressure on care systems, education and training systems and regional cohesion. At the same time, these shifts also bring opportunities. One example is the growing longevity economy which is unlocking new markets for products, services and innovations designed specifically for older citizens, creating new avenues for economic growth and job creation. This can drive innovation in healthcare, technology and financial services.

EU population ageing reshapes workforce and care needs

The report notes that the EU is undergoing a major demographic shift that is reshaping its labour market, requiring to boost participation and productivity. Around 20% of working-age people are outside the labour market, with a 10% gender gap in employment, while 8 million young people are not in education, employment or training. At the same time, employment among people aged 55–64 is rising compared with few decades ago. The EU is supporting these trends by promoting women’s participation, helping young people gain skills, enabling older workers to stay active if they choose, and boosting productivity through innovation and AI.

Boosting productivity and unlocking untapped talent will be key to addressing the impact of a shrinking workforce, helping sustain economic growth and strengthen public finances.

The report also shows that birth rates have fallen, while European society gets older, which means the workforce age population is decreasing. Skilled migration is already playing an important role in helping address labour shortages. By attracting talent from outside the EU, skilled migration can support key sectors, strengthen innovation, and help offset the effects of an ageing population. While it can ease demographic pressures, the priority should remain to upskill and reskill people already in the EU.

The shift to a longevity society also increases demand for healthcare and long-term care, with the number of people needing support expected to rise from 36 to 48 million by 2070 and the share of people aged 80+ doubling. While this brings fiscal challenges, it also drives innovation and more efficient care systems.

What demographic change could mean for Hungary

Hungary is expected to follow the broader European pattern of population decline, ageing and a shrinking workforce. Eurostat’s latest baseline projection places Hungary among the 18 EU countries whose populations are expected to decrease between 2025 and 2100. Deaths are projected to exceed births throughout the entire period, meaning that migration will play an increasingly important role in determining how quickly the country’s population contracts. These figures are scenarios based on assumptions about fertility, mortality and migration rather than fixed predictions.

Interestingly, Hungary is expected to record one of the EU’s smaller increases in median age by 2100, at less than six years. This does not mean that the country will escape ageing, however. The number of working-age residents is still expected to fall, increasing pressure on employers, the pension system, healthcare and long-term care services. Hungary’s relatively high fertility rate of 1.55 children per woman in 2023 – the third highest in the EU – was nevertheless well below the replacement level of around 2.1.

Young people could therefore become even more important to Hungary’s economic performance. Only 3.1 percent of young Hungarians were simultaneously participating in formal education and employment, compared with an EU average of 11.6 percent. The figures also reveal substantial regional differences: Budapest’s share of young people neither working nor studying was 5.4 percentage points below the national average, while several north-western Hungarian regions had already met the EU’s target of reducing this rate below 9 percent.

Life expectancy is expected to rise gradually, but Hungary starts from a comparatively weak position. In 2024, Northern Hungary recorded life expectancy at birth of just 75.1 years, placing it among the five lowest-ranked regions in the EU. Hungary also had the EU’s lowest remaining life expectancy at the age of 65 for both women and men, at 18.6 and 14.7 additional years respectively. Closing these health gaps will therefore be as important as increasing birth rates or attracting skilled workers if Hungary is to manage its demographic transition successfully.

If you missed it: Hungary’s population could shrink drastically by 2100, EU data shows

EU in action to turn demographic change into opportunity

The EU is helping Member States respond to demographic change through a broad set of policies that support people at every stage of life. This latest report provides evidence for the policy response.

The Demography Toolbox, adopted by the Commission in October 2023 and welcomed by all Member States, provides a set of EU policy tools to help national, regional and local authorities integrate demographic trends into policymaking and with coordinated actions across the EU.

Building on this foundation, the Commission has pursued targeted initiatives across key areas:

  • European Affordable Housing Plan: making quality, sustainable housing more accessible, especially for young people and vulnerable households.
  • Intergenerational Fairness Strategy: strengthening solidarity between generations, and ensuring today’s policy create opportunities for the future.
  • EU Anti-Poverty Strategy: reducing poverty across different age groups, by recognising challenges faced by different generations.
  • Union of Skills strategy: investing in lifelong learning, vocational training and quality jobs to build a competitive workforce.
  • European Care Strategy: improving access to affordable, high-quality care services across the EU, through programmes like EU4Health (€5.3 billion, 2021–2027) and the European Health Data Space.
  • Long-term vision for rural areas: addressing challenges arising from population decline, ageing and outmigration in rural regions.
  • Harnessing Talent initiative: focusing on EU regions facing a working-age population decline in combination with a low and stagnating share of people with tertiary education, it allows for tailor-made solutions.

The Commission’s proposal for the next Multi-Annual Financial Framework (2028-2034) includes addressing demographic change as an objective of National and Regional Partnership Plans.

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