Political expectations boost the forint: Is the market betting on a Tisza Party victory? Bloomberg says yes
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At the beginning of the year, one euro cost 415 forints; today, the exchange rate hovers around 388 forints. This represents a 6% gain, while against the U.S. dollar, the Hungarian currency has recovered 20% so far in 2025. Excluding the Russian ruble, the forint has outperformed all other emerging-market currencies.
While favourable domestic interest rates partly support this trend, Bloomberg’s analysis suggests political factors are also at play. Investors are increasingly factoring in a potential election victory for the Tisza Party and its leader, Péter Magyar.
The “Tisza bet”: Investors betting on a change of government
Bloomberg notes that the forint’s strength reflects the market’s anticipation of a government change, which could unlock EUR 18 billion in currently frozen EU funds. That amount corresponds to roughly one-tenth of Hungary’s GDP and could give the economy a significant boost.
Barclays analysts already encouraged clients in August to take a closer look at the forint and consider positions that would benefit from a political turnaround. The bank also upgraded its outlook on Hungarian government bonds, citing the potential for favourable market reactions if the opposition were to win.
Péter Magyar’s promises
At a recent campaign event in Budapest, the Tisza Party leader pledged a more predictable economic policy, an anti-corruption drive, and the rapid securing of EU funds, according to Portfolio. He argued that these measures could generate up to 4% growth—a rate not seen in Hungary since 2022.
So reading this what party would be better for Hungary’s economy and the prosperity of Hungarians? Why would you want to unlock funds equivalent to 10% of Hungary’s GDP when Fidesz will give you a sack of potatoes for your vote? If you go in the Russian countryside that’s all people expect. They have lived in poor conditions for generations and they have no expectations that their lives will ever improve. Fidesz may have achieved the same in Hungary’s countryside. Just hand out a sack of potatoes.
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