Hungary’s currency could still have considerable room to strengthen in the coming years, according to investment experts speaking at the G7 Paradigma Conference in Budapest.
At the closing panel discussion, Márton Péter Price, investment director at EverestQuant, expressed hope that within a few years, the forint would no longer dominate economic debates. His comment shows a shift in thinking: rather than persistent weakness, some analysts now see a more positive long-term trajectory for Hungary’s currency, according to G7.
Audience members at the event were asked to estimate the EUR/HUF exchange rate for business planning in 2027. The average forecast came in at 372.25, slightly weaker than the current level, but experts suggested this may still underestimate the forint’s potential.
“Bad marketing, better performance”
Attila Gyurcsik, CEO of Accorde Fund Management, argued that the forint suffers from a poor reputation that does not reflect its actual performance in recent years.
He noted that, particularly since Mihály Varga took over as central bank governor, forint-denominated savings have often outperformed euro-based investments. This view was echoed by Dániel Móricz of Hold Fund Management, who said that over the past two decades, investors were generally better off holding assets in forint due to consistently higher interest rates.
While individual foreign currencies have periodically delivered strong returns, Hungary’s interest rate premium has typically compensated for depreciation over longer holding periods.
Euro adoption could drive appreciation
A key theme of the discussion was Hungary’s potential path towards adopting the euro. According to Gyurcsik, a credible commitment to joining the eurozone within four to five years could put the forint on a sustained appreciation path.
He pointed to Slovakia as a striking example: before adopting the euro, the Slovak koruna strengthened by around 30%. If Hungary follows a similar trajectory, the forint could move to significantly stronger levels than current forecasts suggest.
However, experts cautioned that excessive currency strength can come at a cost. Slovakia’s post-euro growth slowed after its sharp pre-adoption appreciation, showing the importance of entering the eurozone at a balanced exchange rate.
The high cost of maintaining the forint
Another argument in favour of euro adoption is the cost of maintaining an independent currency. High interest rates (which are needed to support the forint) have imposed a significant burden on the state and taxpayers.
Gyurcsik emphasised that Hungary has effectively paid a large premium to retain its own currency. While this has benefited investors and savers, it has not translated into faster economic convergence.
Moreover, the benefits of high interest rates have been unevenly distributed. As Price pointed out, a large share of Hungarian households lack substantial savings, meaning they do not benefit from higher returns.
Stability and predictability in focus
Beyond potential cost savings, adopting the euro could reduce exchange rate volatility, making economic planning more predictable for businesses and households alike.
This aligns with themes discussed throughout the conference. The G7 Paradigma Conference focused heavily on how to restart Hungary’s stagnating economy after three challenging years.
Participants repeatedly stressed the need for predictable economic policy, improved competitiveness, and stronger productivity. Business leaders highlighted the difficulties posed by high interest rates, uncertain demand, and regulatory unpredictability, but also noted that current pressures may force long-needed structural adjustments.
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A turning point for Hungary’s economy?
While opinions differed on the exact path forward, there was agreement on key priorities: restoring trust, improving efficiency, and ensuring a stable policy environment.
In this context, the future of the forint (and the possibility of euro adoption) has become more than a technical monetary issue. It is more and more seen as part of an economic strategy that could shape Hungary’s growth prospects for years to come.
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